Will the Arab revolutions spread?
Marc Lynch

The end of the Tunisian story hasn't yet been written. We don't yet know whether the so-called Jasmine Revolution will produce fundamental change or a return to a cosmetically-modified status quo ante, democracy or a newly configured authoritarianism. But most of the policy community has long since moved on to ask whether the Tunisian protests will spread to other Arab countries -- Egypt, of course, but also Jordan, Yemen, Algeria, Libya, and almost every place else. Most experts on each individual country can offer powerful, well-reasoned explanations as to why their country won't be next. I'm skeptical too.

But I found it unsatisfying to settle for such skepticism as I watched the massive demonstrations unfold in Egypt on my Twitter feed while moderating a panel discussion on Tunisia yesterday (I plead guilty). As I've been arguing for the last month, something does seem to be happening at a regional level, exposing the crumbling foundations of Arab authoritarianism and empowering young populations who suddenly believe that change is possible. There are strong reasons to expect most of these regimes to survive, which we shouldn't ignore in a moment of enthusiasm. But we also shouldn't ignore this unmistakable new energy, the revelation of the crumbling foundations of Arab authoritarian regimes, or the continuing surprises which should keep all analysts humble about what might follow.


The arguments for skepticism are strong ones. Without belaboring the obvious, every Arab country is different. Each has a distinct political history and culture, a distinct political economy, a distinct demographic profile and urban geography. Many compelling articles have now shown precisely why Tunisia was different -- its robust middle class, its highly educated population, its relatively small size, its ties to Europe through labor migration and remittances, its vulnerability to the global financial crisis, its particularly censored media, its relatively small and under-nurtured military, its relative insignificance to U.S. strategic interests. But those aren't the only reasons to doubt that the Tunisian model can spread.

Another argument for skepticism is authoritarian learning. Simply put, most Arab regimes are quick studies when it comes to their own survival, and quickly adapt when challenged. Unlike tightly controlled Tunisia, states such as Egypt and Jordan have been grappling with protests movements for going on a decade now and have an all-too-rich experience with how to repress, divide, and defeat the new protest movements. Yesterday's massive demonstrations in Cairo may have shocked everyone -- outsiders, Egypt's government, even the protestors -- but in a country which has been rocked by pro-Palestine and anti-Iraq war protests, the Kefaya movement, the April 6 movement, the judges and lawyers protests, and massive labor unrest, the difference is in scale, not type. The same is true across many of the Arab countries which have struggled with restive societies over the last decade.

Dictators learn from each other, not just from the past. The Arab Summit last week displayed this very clearly. Every Arab leader is on red alert at the moment, determined not to repeat Ben Ali's mistakes. They are frantically offering concessions on economic issues, reversing price rises and increasing subsidies. And of course they are ramping up the repressive apparatus, on the streets and online, to try to stop any snowballs from rolling before they get too big. The lesson most seem to have learned is not "be more democratic," it is "be tougher." No Arab leader seems likely to be taken by surprise, or to disregard the early signs of trouble. The success of Egypt's protestors yesterday doesn't mean that they won't be violently crushed today.

And then, of course, there's the international context. Where Tunisia may be relatively insignificant to the great international strategic issues in the region -- Israel, Iran, Iraq, oil -- other potential dominoes have a greater claim on the support of the world's Realists. These authoritarian regimes are the foundation of the America-led regional order. For all the U.S. talk about democracy promotion, the goal has always been to strengthen and legitimize these allies -- to prevent, not to nurture, the kind of popular mobilization exploding today. It's not the least bit surprising that the Washington Post, which has obsessively focused on democracy in Egypt, today finds itself deeply worried by instability there and the strength of Islamists.

Finally, most of the regimes seem to retain the foundations of their overt strength. Oil prices are tolerably high, security services loyal, elections thoroughly manipulated, Islamists repressed, international support strong. In short, there are plenty of reasons to see Tunisia as a one-off.

And yet… it doesn't feel that way. The scenes in Cairo yesterday stand as a sharp rebuke to any analytical certainty. The Egyptian regime was fully prepared, its security forces on alert and deployed, the internet disrupted and al-Jazeera largely off the table… and yet tens of thousands of people still poured into the streets and put together one of the largest demonstrations in contemporary Egyptian history.

Tunisia has manifestly inspired people across the region and galvanized their willingness to take risks to push for change, even without any clear leadership from political parties, Islamist movements, or even civil society. The Tunisian example has offered the possibility of success, and models for sustained action by a decentralized network, after a long and dispiriting period of authoritarian retrenchment. Al-Jazeera and the new media have played their role in reshaping political opportunities and narratives, but it is people who have seized those opportunities. And the core weaknesses of these Arab states --- fierce but feeble, as Nazih Ayubi might have said -- have been exposed. They have massively failed to meet the needs of their people, with awesome problems of unemployment, inflation, youth frustration and inequality combined with the near-complete absence of viable formal political institutions.

The protests have been completely outside of and in opposition to any formal political institutions, and are not channeled through any organized political parties which might push for direct political incorporation. Even if other regimes should fall, it is far too soon therefore to say that they will lead to democracy -- in the rest of the region, just as in Tunisia. We should all be thinking carefully, as Steve Heydemann usefully reminds us, about which scenarios might play out and how transitions to democracy might be crafted from this new protest wave.

Two final points. First, we must not allow fears of Islamists to short-circuit support for such transitions. Already, scare-mongering over the potential for Islamist takeovers has become a major, even dominant theme of Western and Arab official discussions of Tunisia --- and that, in a country where the primary Islamist party al-Nahda was long ago crushed and its leaders exiled. I've long expected that if Egypt got the democratic change which so many in Washington talk about, there would be a rapid and intense backlash as the still powerful Muslim Brotherhood necessarily played a major role and as popular opposition to the Mubarak government's foreign policy jeopardized American and Israeli interests. I'm hoping to be proven wrong.

Second, I think that the Obama administration has handled the last month surprisingly well. It has been absolutely right to resist trying to claim credit for change in Tunisia or to put a "Made in America" stamp on something which manifestly was not. I suspect that there was more of a role behind the scenes in shaping the Ben Ali endgame than is now known. The State Department and the White House have issued a series of strong statements in support of the Tunisian people, including in last night's State of the Union, and last night the White House took a very well-crafted position on Egypt: "We support the universal rights of the Egyptian people, including the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly. The Egyptian government has an important opportunity to be responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people, and pursue political, economic and social reforms that can improve their lives and help Egypt prosper. The United States is committed to working with Egypt and the Egyptian people to advance these goals."

Obama was right in the past to not give in to the temptation to make empty declarations on Egyptian or Arab democracy which would not be met, thereby proving the U.S. either hypocritical or impotent. And the administration was right to focus, as I've long suggested, not on "democracy" but on civil society, economic opportunity, and the "Bill of Rights" freedoms (of speech and of assembly, transparency and accountability). But now conditions have changed, the potential for rapid transformations has appeared, and it's time for the administration to seize the moment to make a difference. For all the criticism he's received on democracy promotion, the Obama administration has now already overseen one more peaceful transition away from Arab authoritarian rule than under the entire Bush administration. It's no longer wishful thinking to suggest that it might not be the only one.

The 2010–2011 Tunisian Revolution, also known as the Jasmine Revolution, is a continuing series of street demonstrations taking place throughout Tunisia from December 2010 onwards. The demonstrations and riots were reported to have started over unemployment, food inflation, corruption, freedom of speech and poor living conditions. The protests led to the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who stepped down from the presidency and fled Tunisia on 14 January 2011 after 23 years in power.

The protests began in December 2010 after Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire after police confiscated his produce cart. (Bouazizi's action has since been replicated across North Africa, the wider Arab world and the region.) The protests constituted the most dramatic wave of social and political unrest in Tunisia in three decades and have resulted in scores of deaths and injuries. Following Ben Ali's departure, a caretaker coalition government was created, including members of Ben Ali's party, the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD), in key ministries, while including other Opposition figures in other ministries, with elections to take place within 60 days. However, five newly-appointed non-RCD ministers resigned almost immediately, and as of 21 January 2011 daily street protests in Tunis and other towns around Tunisia continue, demanding that the new government have no RCD members and that the RCD itself be disbanded.

The protests and change in government are known in Tunisia itself as "Tunisian Dignity Revolution". In the western media these events have commonly been dubbed the Jasmine Revolution, purportedly in keeping with the geopolitical nomenclature of "colour revolutions" (although the accuracy of such use in this case is disputed).

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/26/will_the_arab_revolutions_spread

3 months from now on nobody will really care, I suppose. After all that drama in Iran, shit remains basically the same.

how the fuck is that kudos-worthy? wtf?

Oh and:


Two green wave leaders hanged in Iran:
NSFW image:

Spoiler: show

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Two-green-wave-leaders-hanged-in-Iran-20584.html

PEOPLE POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST!

So shit is going down in Egypt, huh?

Tuesday, Feb 1, 2011 08:02 ET
ALERT: Jordan's king dismisses government as streets fill with protesters
The monarch fired his cabinet amid street protests inspired by Tunisia and Egypt
AP/Nader Daoud

Jordan's King Abdullah has dismissed his cabinet and ended the current government. The king has appointed Marouf al-Bakhit, a former army general, as his new prime minister, and asked him to form a new government.

King Abdullah's move comes after thousands of Jordanians took to the streets — inspired by the regime ouster in Tunisia and the turmoil in Egypt — and called for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices and slowed political reforms.

The Royal Palace says Rifai's Cabinet resigned on Tuesday.

Abdullah also nominated Marouf al-Bakhit as his prime minister-designate. No other details were immediately available.

How have they kept up the food and fuel subsidies this long? I understand that people are used to $.01 Pita and cheap gasoline, but its hardly the fault of the government that subsidizing the driving and eating habits of millions isn't sustainable.

They find a way. A regime with little to no democratic legitimacy is going to have a lot tougher time surviving when the lower classes are faced with massive inflation, inflation caused by the revocation of long standing benefits.

Middle East rulers make concessions

Hosni Mubarak stepped down as president of Egypt on Friday, handing over to the army and ending 30 years of rule, bowing to pressure from protesters demanding he go.

Protests have spread around the Arab world since starting in mid-December in Tunisia. Here are details of some of the concessions made around the region:

Egypt

Vice-president Omar Suleiman has said a military council would run the affairs of the Arab world's most populous nation following the resignation of Mubarak.

A military statement later promised Egypt's 80 million people free and fair elections along with other concessions made earlier by Mubarak.

Bahrain

Bahrain's king has decided to give $2,650 to each family on the Gulf island, the latest step the Sunni rulers have taken to appease the majority Shia public before protests planned for next week.

Although most analysts do not see any immediate risk of revolt, the kingdom is considered the most vulnerable to unrest among Gulf Arab countries.

Tunisia

Tunisia's former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia last month after 23 years in charge of a police state.

Mohamed Ghannouchi, prime minister under Ben Ali since 1999, now heads an interim government. He appointed opposition figures to a national unity coalition and later, after more violent protests, purged the new cabinet of most of the remnants of Ben Ali's government.

Tunisia's interior ministry also replaced 34 senior security officials to overhaul the network of police, security forces and spies built up by Ben Ali over two decades. Interim head of state Fouad Mebazza has promised the start of a national dialogue to try to address citizens' demands.

Algeria

Algeria's state of emergency, in force for the past 19 years, is to be lifted soon, official media quoted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika as saying on Thursday.

The announcement followed pressure from government opponents who demanded the emergency powers be scrapped.

Several Algerian towns including the capital experienced days of rioting and protests last month, provoked by a jump in food prices.

Two people died and hundreds were injured, officials said. To calm the situation, Algeria cut the cost of some basic foodstuffs and increased wheat supplies to markets.

However, protests erupted again on February 12, with pro-democracy demonstrators ignoring an official ban to march in the capital, Algiers.

Yemen

Yemen's opposition has said a dialogue with the government, which was expected to start this week, had been delayed so that it could consult with opposition figures outside the Arabian Peninsula country.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh said on February 3 he would not seek to extend his presidency, in a move that would end his three-decade rule when his current term expires in 2013.

Saleh also vowed not to pass on the reins of government to his son. He appealed to the opposition to call off protests.

Saleh promised direct election of provincial governors and also agreed to re-open voter registration for elections due in April after opposition complaints that around 1.5 million Yemenis were unable to sign up.

Jordan

King Abdullah of Jordan has replaced his prime minister after protests, but the opposition has dismissed the move as insufficient.

The king asked Marouf Bakhit, a conservative former prime minister to head a new government after accepting the resignation of Samir Rifai. He asked the new government to take speedy and tangible steps to launch political reform.

Jordan has announced a $225m package of cuts in the prices of some types of fuel and staples including sugar and rice. Rifai also announced wage increases to civil servants and the military in an attempt to restore calm.

Kuwait

The ruler of Kuwait has announced the distribution of $4bn and free food for 14 months to all citizens, although his country is not facing any protests.

Each of the 1.12 million native citizens will get $3,572 in cash as well as free essential food items until March 31, 2012, Kuwait's emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah was reported to have said.

Let them have shower falafel sex, I say.

Sorta like what happened when post-racial America elected Obama.

SOSDD. Same Old Shit, Different Demagogue.