Using the most current poll averages, here are how the undecided voters in each battleground state would have to break to give each candidate a victory in that state:
(note: I didn't do the math. So don't ask me to explain)
Florida - Bush 23.78%, Kerry 56.22%
Ohio - Bush 37.87%, Kerry 42.13%
Pennsylvania - Bush 96.76%, Kerry -16.76%
Wisconsin - Bush 27.80%, Kerry 52.20%
Iowa - Bush 2.22%, Kerry 77.78%
Minnesota - Bush 34.55%, Kerry 45.45%
Michigan - Bush 79.62%, Kerry 0.38%
Missouri - Bush -8.96%, Kerry 88.96%
New Mexico - Bush 17.97%, Kerry 62.03%
Nevada - Bush -13.06%, Kerry 93.06%
Colorado - Bush -20.26%, Kerry 100.26%
New Hampshire - Bush 58.46%, Kerry 21.54%
Maine - Bush 110.83%, Kerry -30.83%
West Virginia - Bush -4.44%, Kerry 84.44%
Oregon - Bush 89.02%, Kerry -9.02%
New Jersey - Bush 84.44%, Kerry -4.44%
Arkansas - Bush -20.00%, Kerry 100.00%
Hawaii - Bush 35.91%, Kerry 44.09%
Now, if you go with the common assumption that undecideds break 3to-1 for the challenger, Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia and Arkansas -- and wins the election with 276 EVs.
If he does a little better and gets 35 percent of the undecideds, it gives him Minnesota, too. If he gets 38 percent, Bush wins Hawaii and Ohio and wins with 310 EVs.
Obviously, there are some holes here. This is based on current polls, so if you disbelieve them, this is all for naught.
also, it assumes undecideds break at the same rate in each state.
So, it's more just interesting reading, if nothing else.
How do you have more than 100% of the vote and how do you have a negative %? I don't understand.
those aren't the percentages of the vote. those are the percentage of the undecideds each candidate would have to swing to win each state.
If you have higher than 100 percent there, it means you would have to sway ALL the undecideds, plus a percentage of those who already claim to be committed to the other side.
it's hard to explain. I'm not sure how to do it.
just look at the conclusions these guys draw. that's what I find a tad interesting. just for fun.
maybe a better explanation is here, halfway down the page:
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 4:52 pm Posts: 6822 Location: NY Gender: Male
slightofjeff wrote:
If you have higher than 100 percent there, it means you would have to sway ALL the undecideds, plus a percentage of those who already claim to be committed to the other side.
Ummm...if you needed all the undecideds plus a few of those commited to the otherside, how could that state still be considered a swing state? Seems like that'd be a bit of a contradiction.
If you have higher than 100 percent there, it means you would have to sway ALL the undecideds, plus a percentage of those who already claim to be committed to the other side.
Ummm...if you needed all the undecideds plus a few of those commited to the otherside, how could that state still be considered a swing state? Seems like that'd be a bit of a contradiction.
well, polls factor in leaners, and I don't get why if Kerry gets three times more undecideds in Florida he loses.
If you have higher than 100 percent there, it means you would have to sway ALL the undecideds, plus a percentage of those who already claim to be committed to the other side.
Ummm...if you needed all the undecideds plus a few of those commited to the otherside, how could that state still be considered a swing state? Seems like that'd be a bit of a contradiction.
dammit ... I told you not to ask me any math questions.
I'm just reporting what NR posted. Just for fun. I guess maybe it is pointless.
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