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 Post subject: Basic Flaws in Polling?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:44 pm 
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OK so all of the polls are different by some small amounts. Bush up a bit in this one, a bit moe in that, Kerry winning this one by two....so who's right????

I think there may be some serious problems with the way they do polling. In the past it gave an OK assessment when everyone had a home phone line and only 1/2 the people voted.

Well this year we have a HUGE increase in the number of voter registrations. Well who's been registering? It sounds like it's been lots of young people. Well most young people primarily live at home, in college, or only have a cell phone.

We've heard about the cell phone issue but what other things do you think throw these polls off?

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 Post subject: Re: Basic Flaws in Polling?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:46 pm 
gogol wrote:
OK so all of the polls are different by some small amounts. Bush up a bit in this one, a bit moe in that, Kerry winning this one by two....so who's right????

I think there may be some serious problems with the way they do polling. In the past it gave an OK assessment when everyone had a home phone line and only 1/2 the people voted.

Well this year we have a HUGE increase in the number of voter registrations. Well who's been registering? It sounds like it's been lots of young people. Well most young people primarily live at home, in college, or only have a cell phone.

We've heard about the cell phone issue but what other things do you think throw these polls off?


I don't know anyone who answers their homephone so I have no idea how these polling firms are accurrate or going to stay in business. This maybe their last gasp.
But I am 28 days too young to vote so I am SOL


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:49 pm 
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Rock the Vote conducted a poll of 6 thousand cell phone users in which Kerry was up by 15% this past weekend


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:52 pm 
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MY parents have caller ID so if they don't know who's calling they don't answer. This kind of thing has to affect the polls right?

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:54 pm 
Robert Goulet wrote:
Rock the Vote conducted a poll of 6 thousand cell phone users in which Kerry was up by 15% this past weekend


That is as equally skewed. Polling may be dead. Voting may be the only accurate way of gauging public opinion.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 3:54 pm 
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gogol wrote:
MY parents have caller ID so if they don't know who's calling they don't answer. This kind of thing has to affect the polls right?


yes...don't listen to anything that any poll ever has to say...they're all flawed in some way...from how the questions are asked to who they're polling to how many people they poll and where the pople come from...POLLS STINK


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 4:00 pm 
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I don't trust any poll. We are proven to be like trained seals and just follow along. There was a study a few years ago where they put ppl in rooms by themsevles and said they'd be rightback....then a woman would start screaming for help and the overwhleming majority stayed put until they saw someone else go do something. We just follow, it's how we're conditioned today.

When Faux Op/Ed was pushing Terresa Heinz saying Laura Bush never had a real job as meaning being a mom isn't anything special they asked veiwers to call in and email them what they thought about what she said....i called AND emailed saying i thought they were taking what she said out of context and making it into something else and it was no big deal....yet they said at least 3 times on air that I saw after I called and emailed that no one calling or emailing them disagrees with Faux that it was a horrible thing to say.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 4:26 pm 
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well Fox only pushes its own polls the opinion dynamics crap. I wouldn't trust anything that company does.

I certainly hope that polling is dead after this election. A runaway Kerry Victory would go a long way towards helping this. They treat it as a science but if anyone has ever taken a Statistics class you'll have to agree with me when I say that something about the science of it doesn't jive.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:36 pm 
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Polling is really a pointless practice. In the past, simply calling people to ask who they planned for voting for was a good idea. However, with all the different methods of communication today, its hard to get an accurate read on possible election results. After all, it doesnt matter who people SAY they plan on voting for. It all comes down to WHO they ACTUALLY vote for.

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