Dems:
CT: Lieberman
FL: Nelson
MD: open (Sarbanes)
MN: open (Dayton)
NJ: open (Corzine)
Assuming the open seat in VT (Jeffords) goes to the Dems, you're at 55-45 in favor of the GOP. The good news for the Dems is while they do have three open seats, all three are in states that should be solid for them. The bad news for them is that even if they won all ten of them, they still wouldn't win the Senate. Maybe the better luck of deadlocking Congress will come in the House? (the GOP currently has a 30-seat lead).
Feel free to fill in some holes, or add some other intriguing races going on in your state.
Last edited by Green Habit on Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:19 pm Posts: 39068 Location: Chapel Hill, NC, USA Gender: Male
I hate Elizabeth Dole.
_________________ "Though some may think there should be a separation between art/music and politics, it should be reinforced that art can be a form of nonviolent protest." - e.v.
I think that there's a good chance that the dems will blow it again. I saw Casey on Meet the Press and he was horrible, Santorum seemed reasonable next to him.
Ironically, I actually think that Chavez's appearance at the UN will help Bush (and hence the republicans). I tend to think you'll see wayward republicans rally around Bush; expect to see his approval rating continue to creep upwards.
I predict meaningless gains for dems in both houses: 1-2 in the senate (although that could swing the other way) and <5 in the house.
What do you think?
_________________ For your sake I hope heaven and hell are really there but I wouldn't hold my breath
I think that there's a good chance that the dems will blow it again. I saw Casey on Meet the Press and he was horrible, Santorum seemed reasonable next to him.
Ironically, I actually think that Chavez's appearance at the UN will help Bush (and hence the republicans). I tend to think you'll see wayward republicans rally around Bush; expect to see his approval rating continue to creep upwards.
I predict meaningless gains for dems in both houses: 1-2 in the senate (although that could swing the other way) and <5 in the house.
What do you think?
I agree absolutely, and I don't say that because I am for one side or the other. The problem that the Democrats have is that they let the Republicans define them in the public eye. Call him what you want, but Karl Rove is a master at running a campaign, and I'd bet that the Democrats would take him in a heartbeat if he decided to change sides one day.
The other problem the Democrats have....and I know this may be a matter of opinion....is that they can get very non-committal when it comes to major issues. For example, I saw the Santorum/Casey debate on Meet the Press, and I thought Santorum was going to get killed. I am not a Santorum fan...I think he's a flat-out bigot (i.e. his comments on homosexuality). But, like you said, he came off as rather reasonable while Casey looked like a jellyfish (Odd Couple reference, for those old enough to remember). Remember when Casey was stating that he would cut the federal budget and Russert turned to him and asked him to be specific and name a few programs he'd cut? The guy muttered something about....well, I don't even remember, but i do remember that he didn't give a specific program and Santorum jumped all over it and said, "See, typical....no plan, just talking points." Note that Santorum was once down by like 24 points and Casey's lead has shrunk to about 4 or so. You'd figure that out of all the Republican Senators that were on the endangered species list it was Santorum, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Casey blows it.
Overall, I think you're correct. I still think the Democrats can take the Congress, but as it stands now they will barely do so. And we still have a ways to go before Nov 7th, so they could easily blow it entirely, and as vunerable as the Republicans are....they wouldn't have anyone to blame but themselves.
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:57 pm Posts: 941 Location: Buffalo
Man in Black wrote:
I think that there's a good chance that the dems will blow it again. I saw Casey on Meet the Press and he was horrible, Santorum seemed reasonable next to him.
Ironically, I actually think that Chavez's appearance at the UN will help Bush (and hence the republicans). I tend to think you'll see wayward republicans rally around Bush; expect to see his approval rating continue to creep upwards.
I predict meaningless gains for dems in both houses: 1-2 in the senate (although that could swing the other way) and <5 in the house.
What do you think?
I'd like to keep this post going.
the generic ballot is completely useless, what is important are the 35 competitive House races. I'm working on a dataset and hope to post it soon...that will give us some insight.
As of now, my prediction is a 13 DEM seat gain. Almost all of the competitive races are held by GOP incumbents, so it'll be tough for them.
_________________ So we finish the 18th...And I say, 'Hey, Lama, how about a little something ,you know, for the effort.' And he says...when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.'
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:59 am Posts: 18643 Location: Raleigh, NC Gender: Male
The Washington senate race between incumbent D-Maria Cantwell and R-Mike McGavick should be interesting. The last governor election was one of the closest in political history and I don't see this one being any different.
Well, to report from Massachusetts, I think Ted Kennedy could get caught beating up a nun, pissing on a copy of the Constitution and sticking his hand down a boy scout's pants and he would still win.
That website is pretty interesting. What I found most striking was in Florida, Katherine Harris is pulling 38% of the vote. How is it possible that she is pulling that much...that woman is corrupt and a mental case to boot.
I also think that Tom Kean Jr. will take NJ because he is running as a RINO.
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:14 am Posts: 37778 Location: OmaGOD!!! Gender: Male
LeninFlux wrote:
That website is pretty interesting. What I found most striking was in Florida, Katherine Harris is pulling 38% of the vote. How is it possible that she is pulling that much...that woman is corrupt and a mental case to boot.
A lot of people are mental cases.
A lot of people vote their party no matter what.
A lot of people are grateful that she helped GWB win the election in 2000, without really understanding that it might have involved the kind of conflicts and corruption that could undermine democracy itself.
Quote:
I also think that Tom Kean Jr. will take NJ because he is running as a RINO.
I think he'll win because people think he's Tom Kean, Sr.
_________________ Unfortunately, at the Dawning of the Age of Aquarius, the Flower Children jerked off and went back to sleep.
There are some really goofy ones out there...always entertaining.
_________________ So we finish the 18th...And I say, 'Hey, Lama, how about a little something ,you know, for the effort.' And he says...when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.'
I think that there's a good chance that the dems will blow it again. I saw Casey on Meet the Press and he was horrible, Santorum seemed reasonable next to him.
Ironically, I actually think that Chavez's appearance at the UN will help Bush (and hence the republicans). I tend to think you'll see wayward republicans rally around Bush; expect to see his approval rating continue to creep upwards.
I predict meaningless gains for dems in both houses: 1-2 in the senate (although that could swing the other way) and <5 in the house.
What do you think?
_________________ For your sake I hope heaven and hell are really there but I wouldn't hold my breath
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