So this weekend is predicted to be the worst for bushfires in this state (Victoria, Australia) on record. If the ones that are currently burning join up, we'll have a 100km fire front which would be impossible to fight; it would just have to burn out, so either it rains (not bloody likely) runs out of fuel load (climate change induced drought has left the land as dry as a bone and the season is starting earlier and burning longer than ever before) or keep going until, well it hits the ocean (absolute worst case unprecedented surely not going to happen scenario).

Look at this image from NASA; that area shown is about a sixth of the continent. The white stuff is smoke from the fires.


Horror fire forecast ahead

Renee Switzer
December 8, 2006 - 6:48PM
Page 1 of 2 | Single page
Latest related coverage

* Leave early or stay and defend?
* PM pledges bushfire assistance
* Towns on alert as fires rage in state's east
* In haze-cloaked towns, families watch and wait
* Haunting reminders of Victoria's blackest day
* AUDIO Fires to spread
* SLIDESHOW Fire's projected path


■ IMMEDIATE DANGER Kevington, Gaffneys Creek, Knockwood, A1 Mine Settlement, Cheshunt, Rose River, Tolmie and Whitfield

■ ON ALERT Mt Buller, Merrijig, Jamieson, Dargo, Woods Point, Licola, Valencia, Boisdale, Bushy Park, Culloden, Newry, Briagalong,
Coongulla, Glenmaggie and Upper Maffra West

A weather expert has predicted hot and windy conditions forecast for Sunday will pose a threat to life and property, as fires continue to rage throughout Victoria.

"Whilst temperatures will rise tomorrow, I think the winds will only be about 20-30 kmh at most, so in a relative sense moderate winds,'' Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Scott Williams told theage.com.au.

He believes temperatures will rise again on Sunday and a change Sunday night could produce gusty winds up to 60 kmh.

"Sunday night into the early hours of Monday morning with the wind change coming through I think poses the greatest threat to life and property in that the fire front will change direction and behaviour as a result of that change.

"It's fairly nasty, there's no doubting that.''

DSE spokesman Kevin Monk said firefighters were preparing for severe fire conditions on the weekend.

"It's really tomorrow and Sunday that are going to be the extreme days although it will reach extreme in the north west of the state (today) and we still have firefighters monitoring those fires that were in the Casterton area," he said.

Residents prepare to flee

Victorian residents in fire-affected areas are preparing to evacuate their properties ahead of the bushfires that are expected to increase in size and ferocity over the weekend.

Darren Peverill lives on a 120 acre property between Briagolong and Munro and is today busy preparing for the blaze. His wife and six-month-old son will leave the home first thing tomorrow morning.

"They've opted to leave - well I've sort of talked them into it,'' Mr Peverill told theage.com.au this morning as his wife was preparing to evacuate.

"I've got quite a few brothers and brother-in-law who will come and help me out and she'll (his wife) go back into a safe area which is Sale - hopefully Sale's safe anyway."

"We're right in the firing line. My viewing distance is about seven kilometres I suppose, so that's about the notice I would get, I would see the fire coming about seven kilometres away but I think the conditions will get worse ... I don't think I will see it coming at all. It will just happen.''

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/ ... 21451.html

____________

Please keep us in your thoughts, and stop reading now if you don't want to hear me on my soapbox; these kinds of extreme weather events are a glimpse of what is to come because of global climate change. Please lobby your politicians and do what you can about it.

Sorry, Laura, I guess no one cares if Australia burns down.

Jesus, and I thought the ones we had here were bad. I hope everyone's alright.

On a related note, my geology professor told us that human beings now influence the earth on the same level as the climate system. Pretty fucked up.

Where did he/she get that from?

I was just listening to a story on the radio about Australia's feral camel population explosion. It must suck to live down under.

haha, those are in the outback, so it's not like they're wandering into our backyards or anything. i wish they were, that'd be incredibly awesome

Towns on alert for firestorm

Kenneth Nguyen and Daniella Miletic
December 9, 2006


* Small farm towns expect the worst
* Flames flicker over roller-coaster gullies
* GALLERY Fire front
* SLIDESHOW Fire's projected path
* Stretched state calls on NZ crews to battle blazes
* Gippsland towns bracing for weekend fire onslaught
* Towns on alert as fires rage in state's east
* Fire threat to escalate


RESIDENTS in Victoria's fire-ravaged regions are bracing themselves for what could be the worst weekend in the state's bushfire history as fire authorities warned they would not be able to defend every home and settlement.

Today's temperatures are expected to reach 39 degrees in the north-east and firefighters will face at least three days of extreme weather. Authorities fear the five menacing fire fronts could compound into a 600,000-hectare blaze and have warned that the fire's front could extend for 100 kilometres.

Eighteen fires are burning across state forest in the alpine and Gippsland regions, with more than 170,000 hectares burnt so far.

Last night, fires threatened to close in on residential areas in Licola, Dargo, Woods Point, Kevington, Whitfield and Rose River. Department of Sustainability and Environment spokesman Stuart Ord warned that firefighters may not be at every house or settlement in the fire's passage.

"The resources cannot possibly protect every house and every shed in every valley," he said. "Residents need to go to community meetings and understand what they need to do if they are going to stay."

The CFA's deputy chief officer Graham Fountain agreed. "These fires, in the worst-case scenario, will be unstoppable. People should not rely on CFA resources or aircraft to assist them," he said. "They need to be self-reliant and ready for the onset of fire if and when that occurs."

In the north-eastern town of Whitfield, the sense of uncertainty was palpable. "This is a really big fire situation," the department's deputy controller in Wangaratta, Tony Long, told residents. "There is a large number of communities that are under threat." He said staying put would take courage. "Let's be honest, it's going to be scary."

But residents at Whitfield's Mountainview Hotel were last night taking an optimistic approach, vowing to stay in their homes whatever happened.

"No, we won't run," said publican Bruce Doherty. "It won't even come close."

Mount Buller alpine village was on high alert, with the main road into the village closed amid predictions of certain fire.

A string of Gippsland towns and communities are also nervously waiting, with authorities warning that gusty, hot conditions threaten to push fires in the high country to the south coast.

About 17 community meetings were held in the north-east and Gippsland regions yesterday. Three relief centres have been set up in Sale, Bairnsdale and Traralgon to help those who have been forced to flee their homes.

Authorities are predicting that conditions could lead to the closure of the Princes Highway.

Today's winds are not expected to be as severe as originally predicted, with the worst conditions arriving tomorrow. "Fire behaviour will become more aggressive on Sunday and fire direction will change as the front moves through on Sunday night," said Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Scott Williams.

From the air over the fires yesterday, thick smoke could be seen stretching from the state's central west to the coast.

About 200 firefighters from NSW are helping in Gippsland. In all, 3000 firefighters are tackling the blazes.

As the Mount Terrible fire pushes towards Woods Point, firefighters are still preparing to defend the nearby Thomson Dam catchment. Commercial Hotel publican Cameron Woods said most of Woods Point's 40 residents had left the town.

Premier Steve Bracks yesterday defended a policy not to issue evacuation orders to residents at risk. He said advice to either leave early or stay and fight the fire was the safest.

"Our policy is right and it's proved to be right over a long period of time," he said. "We can defend people and assets by having people remain and fight the fire."

Mr Ord said the biggest individual fire was the 35,000 hectare Mount Darling blaze, 30 kilometres north-west of Dargo.

The Ovens and West King fires across the state's north-east have burnt 80,000 hectares, although containment lines have been set up on the eastern edge.

The West King fire threatening Tolmie residents has burned 10,000 hectares, while the Heyfield group of fires has covered 20,000 hectares. The Mount Ligar fire is expected to pass through the Licola area today.

Department of Education spokeswoman Anna Malbon said 24 government schools had been closed due to the fires, with 18 of those in the Gippsland area.

Prime Minister John Howard said the fires were "very, very scary stuff and the terrible combination of circumstances — high temperature, low humidity, all of those things — are very bad indeed."

With AAP, ORIETTA GUERRERA

BLACK DAYS IN VICTORIA'S HISTORY

1939
Fires burned almost 2 million hectares between December 1938 and January 1939, and came to a head on January 13 — so-called Black Friday — when several outbreaks joined up "in a devastating confluence of flame" that swept across eastern Victoria, according to the subsequent official inquiry. Seventy-one people died, more than 650 buildings were razed and the township of Narbethong was destroyed. The fires came at the end of a long drought that had brought many towns to the brink of running dry while Melbourne endured severe water restrictions. Out of the ashes was born the Country Fire Authority, which has evolved into a volunteer fire-fighting force of more than 29,000.

1944
Fires burned throughout January and February in central Victoria and in the west, as well as around Morwell and Yallourn, killing 32 people, destroying 700 homes and more than 1 million head of livestock. People were quick to brand the summer as fierce as the one five years earlier that had led to "Black Friday". On January 14, with temperatures nearing 40 degrees, gale force north-easterly winds fanned a bayside fire that destroyed more than 50 homes in Beaumaris and Mentone, while the next day a huge grassfire swept through the Western District wiping out the towns of Derrinalum, Mount Bute and Berrybank. The season climaxed on February 14 when the Yallourn open cut coal mine caught fire, with 13 people killed.

1969
Torrid conditions prevailed on January 8 — 38 degrees, record low humidity and winds of up to 120 km/h. More than 230 fires broke out, many on Melbourne's urban fringe with the most destructive at Lara, about 50 kilometres south-west of the city. The fire started west of the town and raced across the plains and onto the Princes Highway. Eighteen people died when they left their vehicles and tried to outrun the fire. Other fires were fought at Warrandyte, Diamond Valley and Kangaroo Ground. The day's toll was 23 dead with 230 homes lost and 21 schools, churches and public halls destroyed. "Nature may have provided the conditions which made the flames uncontrollable," said The Age, "but in many cases man provided the spark."

1983
A significant day on the Christian calendar in February 1983 now marks one of the state's blackest bushfire events. The "Ash Wednesday" fires took 47 lives, destroyed more than 2000 houses and scarred vast tracts of Victoria. More than 180 blazes erupted on a day when the thermometer reached 44 degrees and gale-force northerlies fanned the state, left bone dry by one of the longest dry spells on record. Conditions were fierce: there had been several days of total fire ban during the summer and a week before an extraordinary dust storm had blanketed the capital, dumping thousands of tonnes of soil from parched Mallee and Wimmera farms. The worst outbreaks on February 16 were around Macedon, in the Dandenongs and at Warburton, as well as along the south-west coast. The toll included 12 volunteer firefighters trapped near Upper Beaconsfield.

2003
Lightning strikes started 87 fires in eastern Victoria's alpine region on a total fire ban day early in January. Most were extinguished within a couple of days but a number spread and eventually joined to produce a conflagration not seen since 1939. Raging for 70 days, the fires burnt more than 1.3 million hectares of land — about 5 per cent of Victoria or 15 per cent of the state's public land — destroying 41 homes, three bridges and 213 other structures. One firefighter was killed when her vehicle was washed into a stream in a flash flood. Ultimately, the fire linked with blazes in NSW and the ACT to form a front stretching 800 kilometres.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/ ... ntentSwap2

________________

I'm not too close to them right now, but they're so huge that even here all you can see and smell outside is thick smoke.

Don't know where he got it from (although he is a leading geologist, so he probably hobnobs with other scientists all the time), but here's the facts:

--Reservoirs now trap 30% of the sediment transported down the earth's rivers.

--In developed countries, civil engineers now move more rock and soil each year than all natural processes of erosion.

--Enough of the man-made coolant Freon has floated into the stratosphere to damage earth's protective ozone layer.

--In the past 50 years, humans have converted 30% of the world's forests into other uses, primarily agriculture.

--Deforestation and burning of fossil fuels have increased the amount of atmospheric CO2 by almost 40%

--CO2 content is rising at 4% per decade and is likely to cause significant global climate change during the lifetimes of most people now in college.

Pretty fucked up.

Interesting.

I'm a civil engineer to be.

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/fires/updates ... ard%20Time)#

jesus christ

be safe!

as an update, this is still on going, one person's now died and 20 or so homes have been lost. looks like it's getting worse again tomorrow. the city's been covered in smoke all week.

When I was there in October it was drier than all hell everywhere. 1000 year drought and now these terrible fires. Aussies are doin it rough this year.

Climate change stoking bushfires

December 16, 2006

CLIMATE change is causing longer, more aggressive bushfire seasons and must be factored into the state's firefighting plans, Victoria's Emergency Services Commissioner said yesterday.

"We are seeing unprecedented fire behaviour," Commissioner Bruce Esplin said. "Conditions are far worse and we need to be able to deal with a far more aggressive, long-lasting and dangerous fire season."

Mr Esplin said drought, below average rainfall and bushfires had become the norm. "If we happen to have a wet year, that's an exception". He called for a new attitude to fire management and said climate change was the "missing link" in criticism and debate.

"Too many people are trying to live out the history of the past," he told The Age.

Mr Esplin's comments came as Sydney's Climate Institute warned that Victoria would experience far more frequent bushfires due to global warming.

An institute report predicted that very high or extreme bushfire danger days in Melbourne, Bendigo and Sale would jump by up to 23 per cent by 2020 if temperatures rose by 0.9 degrees.

Meanwhile, police want to speak to two teenagers over a deliberately lit fire at Coopers Creek, south-east of Erica, that led to the death of a Longford man.

Donald Dosser, 48, was battling the blaze on a friend's property at Seaton on Thursday night when a trailer he was travelling on toppled and crushed him.

It is believed 28 houses were destroyed in Thursday's fires: 11 in the Toongabbie region, 10 in Gaffneys Creek and seven in the A1 Mine Settlement. More than half a million hectares have been burnt in the high country and Gippsland.

Fire-hit towns including Jamieson, Gaffneys Creek and the A1 Settlement were still on alert last night with patchy rain having little impact.

In a visit to Toongabbie to offer personal hardship grants to residents who lost their homes, Premier Steve Bracks said it was reprehensible that some fires had been deliberately lit.

As debate raged over fire management techniques, Prime Minister John Howard yesterday criticised Victorian national park management for trying to protect parks by closing fire tracks, which had denied access to firefighters.

"It seems contradictory to me that you have a national park that is designed to preserve the trees and everything to do with the environment, and yet in order to fight a fire which will destroy the very thing you're trying to preserve, you close down the fire tracks," he told ABC radio.

Mr Howard said there was not enough evidence to suggest climate change had caused extra bushfires in Australia. "I don't think anyone could ever prove that either way," he said.

His comments on fire tracks followed concerns raised by Victorian country firefighters and were backed by the National Association of Forest Industries.

"State governments and the environmental movement should be called to account for endorsing the management practices that allow these catastrophes to occur," said association chief executive Catherine Murphy.

However, Scott McKenzie, who recently stepped down as CFA captain in Jamieson, said criticism over trail access was unfounded. "The major fire trails have been all cleaned up in the last 12 months," he said.

Mr Esplin also said fire trails had been upgraded since 2003 and some of the criticism did not reflect current conditions.

Mr Esplin investigated authorities' handling of 2002-03's bushfire season and the 2005 prescribed burn at Wilsons Promontory. "What we have to do is plan for fire management all year and every year," he said.

He rejected criticism that controlled fuel burning had been woefully inadequate and said integrated fire plans for every municipality in the state — a recommendation from his 2003 report — would be rolled out over the next 12 months.

The Climate Institute predicted that by 2050, very high or extreme risk days would increase by up to 67 per cent in Bendigo, 63 per cent in Melbourne and 61 per cent in Sale, if temperatures rose by up to two degrees.

Increased frequency and intensity of fire weather would produce more risk of human injury and death, lower water quality and yield from catchments and shorten periods for controlled burns, the report said.

With DANIELLA MILETIC, ADAM MORTON and AAP
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/ ... ntentSwap1

I truly hate that fires like these do cause harm and do damage to people's property BUT, fire does eliminate alot of the downed "fuel" which causes the terrible fires in the first place.

Does Australia have any type of prescribed/controlled burning program to remove this dead fuel? Plus, burning is VERY benficial for alot of wildlife species.

And don't worry about the global warming. Global warming itself will be what triggers the next "mini ice age". And then it'll get so damned cold a majority of us will freeze and starve to death.

yeah, the department of sustainability and environment do prescribed backburning. and yeah, our flora species are adapted to rely on fire to crack open their nut cases and such and drop leave to encourage this.

these fires are far beyond that 'normal' regime.

The last article you posted is kinda like this one which was on firehouse.com last month.

http://www.firerescue1.com/products/wil ... es/242965/

It's been a very bad fire season in a lot of places.

I saw a show two years ago (on the Discovery channel, I think) about people who are Fire Ecologists. Basically, they go out and study the cause and effects of wildland/forest fires. That is something that I would love to do later on in life, which is why I am going back to school now. I'm sure that there is a lot going on in that field right now. Plus, all of this recent talk about "global warming" has peaked my interest.

vacate, I know you have mentioned this before, but I cannot remember. What is your job? I know it has to do with the Environment. I hope that everyone stays safe down there and that they are able to contain the fires before they do too much damage.

thanks for that link

fire ecology is a really interesting field. i did my final major paper at uni on wildfire in the rocky mountains; it's fascinating stuff. that's partly why i'm interested in this specific issue, and seeing it pretty much first hand really brings it home.

as for work, i'm a wind farm planner. i got into it because i double majored in environmental geography and conservation biology at uni and always intended to work in an environmental field. i decided climate change was the most pressing issue of our times and have a fascination for renewable energy, so it all fit.

good luck with your studies!

Any bushes around your folks place?

A few.



Got any matches?

hahahahaha

to answer hinny, not at this stage.