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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 8:37 pm 
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JD Drew will have a big year. He came on in the playoffs with that dingahh.
I also expect better years out of Dice-K (the Josh Beckett effect) and Hanson, given that his snoring/sleeping problem is fixed. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:25 pm 
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Coach wrote:
I also expect better years out of Dice-K

what about a sophomore slump from he, Okie, pedroia and Ellsbury? i don't think its out of the question, but i'm with you, i think dice-k will improve by being more consistent. Peds, Ellsbury and okie will be about the same.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:29 pm 
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EllisEamos wrote:
Coach wrote:
I also expect better years out of Dice-K

what about a sophomore slump from he, Okie, pedroia and Ellsbury? i don't think its out of the question, but i'm with you, i think dice-k will improve by being more consistent. Peds, Ellsbury and okie will be about the same.


You are delirious if you think Ellsbury and Okie will have the years they had last year. Ellsbury played for about 2-2 1/2 months, he is still nobody in my book. I have no clue what to expect from him. Pedroia has shown he always has a slow start when moving up a level so I think he can have a pretty similar year this year, if not better. Okajima was worn down last year, heopfully he is used to the grind of the longer season. Dice-K will be fine.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:15 pm 
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Dr. Gonzo wrote:
EllisEamos wrote:
Ellsbury will be about the same.


You are delirious if you think Ellsbury will have the year he had last year.

so you agree with me about everything but ellsbury? then how come i'm delirious? i don't expect him to do what he did for his short stint last year (.903 OPS), but i don't think its out of the question that he'll be a very good centerfielder and a lot less of the "automatic out" that coco was... which is all i meant.

bill james projections for ellsbury, okie, pedroia, lester, buchholz and dice-k:

Jacoby Ellsbury
----G------BA-----OBP-----SLG-----2B----R----H---HR---RBI---BB---K---SB
--134----.297---.349-----.392-----34---87--163--4-----58---37---72--43

Dustin Pedroia
-----G------BA-----OBP-----SLG------2B---R----H---HR---RBI--BB---K---SB
---150----.292----.359-----.431-----44---75--160--10---62---51---43---3

Hideki Okajima
--ERA-----IP-------G----W-L-----K
-3.09----64.1-----63----4-1-----65

Jon Lester
--ERA-----IP-------G----W-L-----K
-4.93----148-----30-----8-8----100

Clay Buchholz
--ERA-----IP-------G----W-L-----K
-4.47----135-----28-----9-8----120

Daisuke Matsuzaka
--ERA-----IP-------G-----W-L------K
-3.95----196-----29-----15-10---177

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:07 am 
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EllisEamos wrote:
Dr. Gonzo wrote:
EllisEamos wrote:
Ellsbury will be about the same.


You are delirious if you think Ellsbury will have the year he had last year.

so you agree with me about everything but ellsbury? then how come i'm delirious? i don't expect him to do what he did for his short stint last year (.903 OPS), but i don't think its out of the question that he'll be a very good centerfielder and a lot less of the "automatic out" that coco was... which is all i meant.

bill james projections for ellsbury, okie, pedroia, lester, buchholz and dice-k:

Jacoby Ellsbury
----G------BA-----OBP-----SLG-----2B----R----H---HR---RBI---BB---K---SB
--134----.297---.349-----.392-----34---87--163--4-----58---37---72--43

Dustin Pedroia
-----G------BA-----OBP-----SLG------2B---R----H---HR---RBI--BB---K---SB
---150----.292----.359-----.431-----44---75--160--10---62---51---43---3

Hideki Okajima
--ERA-----IP-------G----W-L-----K
-3.09----64.1-----63----4-1-----65

Jon Lester
--ERA-----IP-------G----W-L-----K
-4.93----148-----30-----8-8----100

Clay Buchholz
--ERA-----IP-------G----W-L-----K
-4.47----135-----28-----9-8----120

Daisuke Matsuzaka
--ERA-----IP-------G-----W-L------K
-3.95----196-----29-----15-10---177


Ellsbury and Oki I disagree with. To expect them to duplicate what they did last year is not fair. Take a look at what Bill James had to say about players last year in terms of projections. I think the only one he was close on was Varitek. I really don't put too much stock in James.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:30 pm 
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Dr. Gonzo wrote:
Ellsbury and Oki I disagree with. To expect them to duplicate what they did last year is not fair. Take a look at what Bill James had to say about players last year in terms of projections. I think the only one he was close on was Varitek. I really don't put too much stock in James.

i agree with you, and i said so originally. i said ellsbury, pedroia and okie would do "about" the same as last year. i expect a drop off for all three. looking at the whole team, i only expect better years from ortiz, manny and dice-k.

i'm not basing my opinion on his projection(s), i'm using it as a starting point and using my own judgement to determine if i think a guy will do better/worse/the same as what he's predicted.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:30 pm 
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EllisEamos wrote:
i only expect better years from ortiz, manny and dice-k.


Manny should be Manny. I'm just hoping Ortiz stays healthy and Dice-k is better adjusted.

Pretty amazing what Okajima did last year considering he came halfway across the world. I expect both he and Dice-k come closer to what their previous records show this year.

Of course I could be totally wrong, like the guys in those NFL commercials.


Last edited by Self Polluted on Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:30 pm 
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EllisEamos wrote:
Dr. Gonzo wrote:
Ellsbury and Oki I disagree with. To expect them to duplicate what they did last year is not fair. Take a look at what Bill James had to say about players last year in terms of projections. I think the only one he was close on was Varitek. I really don't put too much stock in James.

i agree with you, and i said so originally. i said ellsbury, pedroia and okie would do "about" the same as last year. i expect a drop off for all three. looking at the whole team, i only expect better years from ortiz, manny and dice-k.

i'm not basing my opinion on his projection(s), i'm using it as a starting point and using my own judgement to determine if i think a guy will do better/worse/the same as what he's predicted.


I know you don't like the guy, but you really don't think Drew will have a better year this year?


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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:38 pm 
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Dr. Gonzo wrote:
I know you don't like the guy

that's an understatement.

Dr. Gonzo wrote:
you really don't think Drew will have a better year this year?

nope, #7 will produce ABOUT the same as last year.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:58 pm 
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I heard Francona on the radio today saying something about how Ellsbury will have to take the starting spot from Crisp since he is the incumbent or something like that. He might have just been saying that they have to compete for the spot and they are not just going to give it to Ellsbury. Also, they might be trying to slot Crisp as a starter if they're still looking to trade him, since being a 4th outfielder probably lessens his value.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:22 pm 
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Can Ellsbury really have a sophomore slump when he only played for about a month? I think he picks up where he leaft off. As for Pedrioa, I could see the sophomore slump......


Why doesn't the title of this thread have: '08 Boston Red Sox thread?

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:48 pm 
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Coach wrote:
Can Ellsbury really have a sophomore slump when he only played for about a month? I think he picks up where he leaft off. As for Pedrioa, I could see the sophomore slump......


Why doesn't the title of this thread have: '08 Boston Red Sox thread?

why does it need it?

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:33 am 
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Coach wrote:
Why doesn't the title of this thread have: '08 Boston Red Sox thread?

Why doesn't it have "World Champion" in the title?

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 1:11 am 
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Coach wrote:
Can Ellsbury really have a sophomore slump when he only played for about a month? I think he picks up where he leaft off. As for Pedrioa, I could see the sophomore slump......


Why doesn't the title of this thread have: '08 Boston Red Sox thread?


So you are more comfortable with a sample size of a month than a year? I am not worried about Pedroia at all. Ellsbury should start the year in AAA and Coco should be starting in CF.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 1:49 am 
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Dr. Gonzo wrote:
Ellsbury should start the year in AAA and Coco should be starting in CF.

i don't think this is that unlikely. it keeps ellsbury's professional time down and hopefully will make coco more valuable come the deadline (or sooner). the sox aren't gonna just deal him b/c they don't need him, they want something in exchange that will help them.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 4:27 am 
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EllisEamos wrote:
the sox aren't gonna just deal him b/c they don't need him, they want something in exchange that will help them.


That's what I like about the fact that Coco is still on this team. When Schilling went down I saw a lot of people saying they should trade Coco for pitching help. Realistically, they wouldn't be able to get anything but a middle of the road guy for Coco at this point. Why would you trade away a young outfielder with speed and outstanding fielding skills for a guy like that when you can move other guys up from the back of the rotation and fill in with Tavarez or Snyder? The fact that the Red Sox were able to say that they wouldn't include Coco Crisp in a deal for anything less than Johan Santana speaks volumes about where this organization stands right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 6:41 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:06 pm 
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I :heartbeat: Buchholz

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:47 pm 
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Dr. Gonzo wrote:
Coach wrote:
Can Ellsbury really have a sophomore slump when he only played for about a month? I think he picks up where he leaft off. As for Pedrioa, I could see the sophomore slump......


Why doesn't the title of this thread have: '08 Boston Red Sox thread?


So you are more comfortable with a sample size of a month than a year? I am not worried about Pedroia at all. Ellsbury should start the year in AAA and Coco should be starting in CF.


I think Ellsbury should be given the job if he wins it in spring training; if they were willing to give it to him in the playoffs, then you have to at least give him a chance to win the job again in March/April, which it looks like they will.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Boston Red Sox Thread
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:11 am 
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The CF job is Coco's the same way the closer's job was Foulke's at the beginning of 2006. He's on double secret probation.

How in the fuck did Schilling hurt himself in the offseason?

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