This didn't really fit neatly into an old thread I don't think so I made a new one. It's based off of a Rick Reilly article in which he "re-drafts" '06, '07, and '08. He uses it to judge which teams did the best and worst in the first round. The points system he designed is fundamentally flawed for obvious reasons, but the idea of what order those players would be picked in today is pretty interesting, and obviously up for debate. I found a lot that I disagreed with, but it's a pretty good jumping off point since there's nothing to discuss with the NFL.
The numbers to the right of their position is where they were actually drafted followed by the difference.
Quote:
2006: 1 Mario Williams Texans DE 1 0 2 Haloti Ngata Ravens DT 12 +10 3 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars RB 60 +57 4 Nick Mangold Jets C 29 +25 5 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets OT 4 -1 6 Santonio Holmes Steelers WR 25 +19 7 Jahri Evans Saints G 108 +101 8 Devin Hester Bears WR 57 +49 9 Greg Jennings Packers WR 52 +43 10 Elvis Dumervil Broncos DE 126 +116 11 Jay Cutler Broncos QB 11 0 12 Kamerion Wimbley Browns LB 13 +1 13 DeMeco Ryans Texans LB 33 +20 14 Johnathan Joseph Bengals CB 24 +10 15 Cortland Finnegan Titans CB 215 +200 16 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE 20 +4 17 Brandon Marshall Broncos WR 119 +102 18 Marcedes Lewis Jaguars TE 28 +10 19 Vernon Davis 49ers TE 6 -13 20 Chad Greenway Vikings LB 17 -3 21 A.J. Hawk Packers LB 5 -16 22 Antonio Cromartie Chargers CB 19 -3 23 DeAngelo Williams Panthers RB 27 +4 24 Marcus McNeill Chargers OT 50 +26 25 Eric Winston Texans OT 66 +41 26 Davin Joseph Bucs G 23 -3 27 Ray Edwards Vikings DE 127 +100 28 Antoine Bethea Colts S 207 +179 29 Brad Smith Jets WR 103 +74 30 Owen Daniels Texans TE 98 +68 31 Andrew Whitworth Bengals OT 55 +24 32 Reggie Bush Saints RB 2 -30
First-round picks and where they'd be drafted now (255 picks in 2006 draft) Pick Player Team Position Original Pick Change 38 Michael Huff Raiders S 7 -31 93 Joseph Addai Colts RB 30 -63 99 Manny Lawson 49ers LB 22 -77 118 Vince Young Titans QB 3 -115 129 Donte Whitner Bills S 8 -121 160 Ernie Sims Lions LB 9 -151 172 Mathias Kiwanuka Giants DE 32 -140 182 Jason Allen Dolphins S 16 -166 206 Bobby Carpenter Cowboys LB 18 -188 219 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles DT 14 -205 241 Kelly Jennings Seahawks CB 31 -210 Undrafted Matt Leinart Cardinals QB 10 -245 Undrafted Tye Hill Rams CB 15 -240 Undrafted Laurence Maroney Patriots RB 21 -234 Undrafted John McCargo Bills DT 26 -229
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2007: 1 Adrian Peterson Vikings RB 7 +6 2 Darrelle Revis Jets CB 32 -25 3 Patrick Willis 49ers LB 11 +8 4 Calvin Johnson Lions WR 2 -2 5 Joe Thomas Browns OL 3 -2 6 LaRon Landry Redskins DB 6 0 7 Dwayne Bowe Chiefs WR 23 +16 8 Sidney Rice Vikings WR 44 +36 9 LaMarr Woodley Steelers LB 46 +37 10 David Harris Jets LB 47 +37 11 Marshal Yanda Ravens OT 86 +75 12 Ahmad Bradshaw Giants RB 250 +238 13 Leon Hall Bengals CB 18 +5 14 Michael Griffin Titans S 19 +5 15 Jon Beason Panthers LB 25 +10 16 Kevin Kolb Eagles QB 36 +20 17 Zach Miller Raiders TE 38 +21 18 Steve Smith Giants WR 51 +33 19 Charles Johnson Panthers DE 83 +64 20 Leroy Harris Titans OL 20 0 21 Lawrence Timmons Steelers LB 15 -6 22 Aaron Ross Giants CB 20 -2 23 Brandon Meriweather Patriots S 24 +1 24 Paul Posluszny Bills LB 34 +10 25 Mike Sims-Walker Jaguars WR 79 +54 26 Doug Free Cowboys OT 122 +96 27 Jermon Bushrod Saints OT 125 +98 28 Steve Breaston Cardinals WR 142 +114 29 Brent Celek Eagles TE 162 +133 30 Mason Crosby Packers PK 193 +163 31 Desmond Bishop Packers LB 192 +161 32 Levi Brown Cardinals OT 5 -27
First-round picks and where they'd be drafted now (255 picks in 2007 draft) Pick Player Team Position Original Pick Change 34 Reggie Nelson Jaguars S 21 -13 38 Anthony Spencer Cowboys LB 26 -12 45 Greg Olsen Bears TE 31 -14 46 Joe Staley 49ers OT 28 -18 60 Ben Grubbs Ravens G 29 -31 65 Marshawn Lynch Bills RB 12 -53 71 Robert Meachem Saints WR 27 -44 77 Amobi Okoye Texans DT 10 -67 100 Adam Carriker Rams DE 13 -87 121 Anthony Gonzalez Colts WR 32 -89 141 Jamaal Anderson Falcons DE 8 -133 143 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins WR 9 -134 208 Craig (Buster) Davis Chargers WR 30 -178 Undrafted JaMarcus Russell Raiders QB 1 -254 Undrafted Justin Harrell Packers DT 16 -239 Undrafted Jarvis Moss Broncos DE 17 -238 Undrafted Brady Quinn Browns QB 22 -233 Deceased Gaines Adams Bucs DE 4 N/A
Quote:
2008: 1 Matt Ryan Falcons QB 3 +2 2 Chris Johnson Titans RB 24 +22 3 DeSean Jackson Eagles WR 49 +46 4 Ray Rice Ravens RB 55 +51 5 Jamaal Charles Chiefs RB 73 +68 6 Peyton Hillis Broncos RB 227 +221 7 Ryan Clady Broncos OT 12 +5 8 Jerod Mayo Patriots LB 10 +2 9 Pierre Garcon Colts WR 205 +196 10 Jake Long Dolphins OT 1 -9 11 Joe Flacco Ravens QB 18 +7 12 Tracy Porter Saints CB 40 +28 13 Matt Forte Bears RB 44 +31 14 Steve Johnson Bills WR 224 +210 15 Aqib Talib Bucs CB 20 +5 16 Brandon Flowers Chiefs CB 35 +19 17 Jason Jones Titans DT 54 +37 18 Terrell Thomas Giants CB 63 +45 19 Jermichael Finley Packers TE 91 +72 20 Cliff Avril Lions DE 92 +72 21 Brandon Carr Chiefs CB 140 +119 22 Carl Nicks Saints OT 164 +142 23 Darren McFadden Raiders RB 4 -19 24 Sam Baker Falcons OT 21 -3 25 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers RB 23 -2 26 Chris Long Rams DE 2 -24 27 Glenn Dorsey Chiefs DT 5 -22 28 Jonathan Stewart Panthers RB 13 -15 29 Jeff Otah Panthers OT 19 -10 30 Duane Brown Texans OT 26 -4 31 Antoine Cason Chargers CB 27 -4 32 Dustin Keller Jets TE 30 -2 First-round picks and where they'd be drafted now (252 picks in the 2008 draft) Pick Player Team Position Original Pick Change 33 Kenny Phillips Giants S 31 -2 36 Sedrick Ellis Saints DT 7 -29 50 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Cardinals CB 16 -34 71 Felix Jones Cowboys RB 22 -49 87 Keith Rivers Bengals LB 9 -78 101 Leodis McKelvin Bills CB 11 -90 152 Branden Albert Chiefs OL 15 -137 164 Mike Jenkins Cowboys CB 25 -139 181 Chris Williams Bears OT 14 -167 195 Lawrence Jackson Seahawks DE 28 -167 220 Derrick Harvey Jaguars DE 8 -212 Undrafted Gosder Cherilus Lions OT 17 -235 Undrafted Vernon Gholston Jets DE 6 -246 Undrafted Kentwan Balmer Seahawks DE 29 -223
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
I'll start off by showing my homerism again...he has Jake Long tenth for '08. And not even the first OT. Maybe I'm dead wrong because I live down here, but how is Long regarded nationally? I thought he was considered pretty much the best LT in the game. I'd put him at #2 behind Ryan and certainly no lower than 5. Am I wrong here?
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
Absolutely. That's why I kind of viewed this as useful less for actually judging the drafts (as the name of the thread implies) and more interesting for reevaluating who turned out to be the best players in the draft, which while a part of judging a draft is only a small part of the whole, so the results Reilly extrapolates are predictably based on only a fraction of the picture.
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
Absolutely. That's why I kind of viewed this as useful less for actually judging the drafts (as the name of the thread implies) and more interesting for reevaluating who turned out to be the best players in the draft, which while a part of judging a draft is only a small part of the whole, so the results Reilly extrapolates are predictably based on only a fraction of the picture.
This is also why I think it is absolutely possible to "judge" how well a team has drafted immediately after the draft. You can't judge how well they've evaluated the particular players for several years, but you can absolutely judge how well a team has managed its assets.
_________________
Fortuna69 wrote:
I will continue to not understand
Last edited by thodoks on Fri May 13, 2011 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:08 am Posts: 22978 Gender: Male
thodoks wrote:
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
I cant agree with this more. the biggest complaint I heard about the Lions draft this year was their lack of picks- no 5th or 6th rounder originally. What people never want to acknowledge that with pick trading and getting veterans those picks played a role in the Starting LG (rob sims), the #3 DE (lawerence jackson) that gave you six sacks, and the backup QB that was very solid (shaun hill). Outside of a random brady style lucky/developmental pick, I could argue the Lions got more value from their 2011 5th and 6th rounders than anyone that actually drafted.
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
I cant agree with this more. the biggest complaint I heard about the Lions draft this year was their lack of picks- no 5th or 6th rounder originally. What people never want to acknowledge that with pick trading and getting veterans those picks played a role in the Starting LG (rob sims), the #3 DE (lawerence jackson) that gave you six sacks, and the backup QB that was very solid (shaun hill). Outside of a random brady style lucky/developmental pick, I could argue the Lions got more value from their 2011 5th and 6th rounders than anyone that actually drafted.
Absolutely.
People say New England's 2007 draft sucked because they only selected one regular contributor (Big Bang Clock). But draft picks are assets. If you don't like the depth or talent of a particular crop of players, then it makes sense to trade them into future years or for current players. You can absolutely make the argument that Brandon Meriweather wasn't the best pick at 24, but they turned the 28th pick into the 7th overall pick the following year and a 2007 fourth-rounder. The 2008 first-rounder turned into the 10th overall pick (Jerod Mayo) and a 3rd round pick (some scrub who Belichick cut pretty early) after a trade with New Orleans. They flipped a 2007 second and seventh for Wes Welker, and used the fourth-rounder from San Francisco in a trade for Randy Moss.
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:08 am Posts: 22978 Gender: Male
thodoks wrote:
Skitch Patterson wrote:
thodoks wrote:
I've always thought "judging" a draft should be broken into two different criteria: how well a team managed its assets to either select the player they liked or acquire otherwise meaningful assets (additional/future picks, NFL veterans, etc), and how well they evaluated the capabilities of that player. That is, asset management is very different from player evalution, and both should factor into determining how well a team drafts.
The distinction can lead to a very different evaluation than you might get from the Mel Kipers of the world.
I cant agree with this more. the biggest complaint I heard about the Lions draft this year was their lack of picks- no 5th or 6th rounder originally. What people never want to acknowledge that with pick trading and getting veterans those picks played a role in the Starting LG (rob sims), the #3 DE (lawerence jackson) that gave you six sacks, and the backup QB that was very solid (shaun hill). Outside of a random brady style lucky/developmental pick, I could argue the Lions got more value from their 2011 5th and 6th rounders than anyone that actually drafted.
Absolutely.
People say New England's 2007 draft sucked because they only selected one regular contributor (Big Bang Clock). But draft picks are assets. If you don't like the depth or talent of a particular crop of players, then it makes sense to trade them into future years or for current players. You can absolutely make the argument that Brandon Meriweather wasn't the best pick at 24, but they turned the 28th pick into the 7th overall pick the following year and a 2007 fourth-rounder, which turned into the 10th overall pick (Jerod Mayo) and a 3rd round pick (some scrub who Belichick cut pretty early). They flipped a second and seventh for Wes Welker, and used the fourth-rounder from San Francisco in a trade for Randy Moss.
New England crushed the 2007 draft.
Add into that fact, the sheer number of players and picks the Patroits acquire, it allows them to do things that other programs cant do- like cut a scrub 3rd round pick. Most NFL teams are stuff with their 1st rounder for at least 3 years, 2-3 for at least two, and 4-6 for at least a season. Because they have the depth and ability to replenish those positions at any time, they are able to cut their losses very early on.
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:08 am Posts: 22978 Gender: Male
Skitch Patterson wrote:
Add into that fact, the sheer number of players and picks the Patroits acquire, it allows them to do things that other programs cant do- like cut a scrub 3rd round pick. Most NFL teams are stuff* with their 1st rounder for at least 3 years, 2-3 for at least two, and 4-6 for at least a season. Because they have the depth and ability to replenish those positions at any time, they are able to cut their losses very early on.
Listen we know the value of trading picks for players. AJ Feely, Daute Culpepper and Wes Welker were all worth a 2nd. Marshall is worth 2 seconds. Lamar Gordon was worth a 3rd.
Good times.
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
Listen we know the value of trading picks for players. AJ Feely, Daute Culpepper and Wes Welker were all worth a 2nd. Marshall is worth 2 seconds. Lamar Gordon was worth a 3rd.
Good times.
It sounds like Miami has a player evaluation problem, not necessarily an asset management problem (though trading two second round picks for a mouthbreathing, diva WR was, even without the benefit of hindsight, a terrible decision).
Listen we know the value of trading picks for players. AJ Feely, Daute Culpepper and Wes Welker were all worth a 2nd. Marshall is worth 2 seconds. Lamar Gordon was worth a 3rd.
Good times.
It sounds like Miami has a player evaluation problem, not necessarily an asset management problem (though trading two second round picks for a mouthbreathing, diva WR was, even without the benefit of hindsight, a terrible decision).
The way I look at it is we would have drafted Pat White with both of those 2nd round picks so the trade was actually quite good.
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
Listen we know the value of trading picks for players. AJ Feely, Daute Culpepper and Wes Welker were all worth a 2nd. Marshall is worth 2 seconds. Lamar Gordon was worth a 3rd.
Good times.
It sounds like Miami has a player evaluation problem, not necessarily an asset management problem (though trading two second round picks for a mouthbreathing, diva WR was, even without the benefit of hindsight, a terrible decision).
The way I look at it is we would have drafted Pat White with both of those 2nd round picks so the trade was actually quite good.
Why the fuck did Miami think it was a good idea to trade up for the privilege to select a pretty unremarkable RB when Ryan Mallett was there for the taking? Puzzling.
Listen we know the value of trading picks for players. AJ Feely, Daute Culpepper and Wes Welker were all worth a 2nd. Marshall is worth 2 seconds. Lamar Gordon was worth a 3rd.
Good times.
It sounds like Miami has a player evaluation problem, not necessarily an asset management problem (though trading two second round picks for a mouthbreathing, diva WR was, even without the benefit of hindsight, a terrible decision).
The way I look at it is we would have drafted Pat White with both of those 2nd round picks so the trade was actually quite good.
Why the fuck did Miami think it was a good idea to trade up for the privilege to select a pretty unremarkable RB when Ryan Mallett was there for the taking? Puzzling.
BECAUSE HE CAN RUN THE WILDCAT AND HAS INJURY PROBLEMS!!!!!!!! FML
(Also, I don't like Mallet so that isn't the part that bothers me). It's the trading up for a guy who would have been there in the 4th round just because he can throw for a RB.
_________________ "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." -- John Steinbeck
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