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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 5:42 pm 
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Mick is right on Gonzalez...he don't pass the eyeball test. If he wasn't criticizing the media he was whining about having to play too many Sunday night games. I was almost as happy to see him gone as I was Beckett...I think I might miss Crawford the most out of the three, because Crawford was the one guy who didn't strike me as "total asshole."

And seriously, don't ever compare this guy in the clutch to Ortiz ever again...if he was anything like David Ortiz circa 2003-2007, no one would've been happy to see him go.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 5:46 pm 
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The Red Mosquito Sports Forum could really use a primer class in statistics.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 6:56 pm 
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In the end, Crawford will be the only player the Dodgers received in that trade that will even come close to approaching value for money. Stats are a great evaluating tool, but they dont tell the entire picture, and I cant stand people that rely on them exclusively when evaluating players. There's no stat(other than games played) that tells if a player is injury prone or not, or a stat that tells you a certain player will sit out 2 weeks for an injury other players would miss one game for. There's no stat that tells you what kind of market a player will thrive in. There's no clubhouse cancer statistic. There's no nutcase statistic. There's no clutch stat, I dont put much stock in late inning statistics because they dont truly define clutch situations. Too much reliance on stats gives you guys like JD Drew getting insanely overpaid and guys like Mark Reynolds getting underpaid.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 3:51 am 
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MattA751 wrote:
Mick is right on Gonzalez...he don't pass the eyeball test. If he wasn't criticizing the media he was whining about having to play too many Sunday night games. I was almost as happy to see him gone as I was Beckett...I think I might miss Crawford the most out of the three, because Crawford was the one guy who didn't strike me as "total asshole."

And seriously, don't ever compare this guy in the clutch to Ortiz ever again...if he was anything like David Ortiz circa 2003-2007, no one would've been happy to see him go.


You may be absolutely right to criticize his effort level or his bitching and whining, but I wasn't referring to that. Those things can definitely make a player worth trading. I was arguing against the perception that Gonzalez was horrible in the Red Sox collapse in 2011. That's simply not true. Ortiz was not good. Youkilis was terrible. Saltalamacchia was terrible. The pitchers were horrible. Gonzalez, Pedroia and Ellsbury were good. It's just such an easy cop-out to say "I don't care what the stats say, he wasn't good!" In that month, he got on base a lot and hit for a lot of power. You absolutely CANNOT argue that.

Again, and I obviously need to stress this, I'm using the stats to determine his on-field value during September of 2011. I'm not evaluating how he will perform going forward or how good of a teammate he was or how much he played through pain or how good it was for the team to get rid of him. All I'm saying is that he played baseball very well while the majority of his team collapsed. That's it.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 8:41 am 
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man, fuck Mark Reynolds.


an unrelated addendum: cluuuuuuutch

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:42 pm 
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What I meant was
I've really started to dislike high strikeout players. It's probably come from watching Curtis Granderson really become the epitome of that type of player over the last couple of years. The "yes he strikes out a lot, but if he can keep hitting 30 or 40 homers a year it's a fair trade" player. The Ks end up outnumbering the homers 5 to 1 and he strikes out in basically every game, often multiple times. It just feels like such a waste, and it is unhelpful in the game situation every time.

an unrelated addendum: Like many others on here and around the baseball world, be they stat geeks or not, I don't believe in clutch.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:12 am 
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as a Brewer fan, I can agree, the power hitter who K's alot, IS HORRIBLE in the long run... and weve had some of the all time greats
Gorman Thomas, Rob Deer, Greg Vaungh, Jose Valentine, Jose Hernandez, Richie Sexon, Geoff Jenkins, Jeromy Burnitz, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart...
2001, we had Hernandez 185, Sexon 178, Burnitz 150, and Jenkins at 120, all in the same lineup, sure the 4 hit over 120 homers, but over 600 K's from 4 players!

so yeah, screw Mark Reynolds and players like him.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:58 am 
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Multiple people claiming that the literal number of times a man hit a ball can be trumped by "One time I saw him not hit the ball." I love it.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:03 am 
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Mickey wrote:
Multiple people claiming that the literal number of times a man hit a ball can be trumped by "One time I saw him not hit the ball." I love it.


:roll:

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:09 am 
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Mickey wrote:
Multiple people claiming that the literal number of times a man hit a ball can be trumped by "One time I saw him not hit the ball." I love it.

I don't understand what you mean here.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 1:20 pm 
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It's about as funny as saying JD Drew is more valuable to a team than Cody Ross because JD has better VORP and UZR.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 1:30 pm 
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mick7184 wrote:
It's about as funny as saying JD Drew is more valuable to a team than Cody Ross because JD has better VORP and UZR.


I'd say JD Drew is a better player than Cody Ross...and I like Cody Ross but his stats were inflated by playing 81 games in Fenway last year...

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:18 pm 
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JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:33 pm 
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mick7184 wrote:
JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


These kind of comments make me think people overvalue things like "leadership" and "hustle". There's certainly something to be said for those things and I understand how they can increase or decrease the value of a player, but there's a pretty huge chasm of on-field value between Drew and Ross, and I'm not sure "intangibles" are enough to overcome that difference.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:26 pm 
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PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


These kind of comments make me think people overvalue things like "leadership" and "hustle". There's certainly something to be said for those things and I understand how they can increase or decrease the value of a player, but there's a pretty huge chasm of on-field value between Drew and Ross, and I'm not sure "intangibles" are enough to overcome that difference.


I think it's a case by case basis...I definitely think if the guy is a total a-hole, that can play into things big time. But in the case of Drew vs Ross I agree with you. Cody Ross is overvalued by Red Sox fans big time. And again, I like the guy. But paying him 9 million a year (especially when you play in the NL West with all those cavernous ballparks) is actually probably just as bad as Drew's Red Sox deal in terms of overpaying.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:31 pm 
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I would rather have a guy of average talent that cares whether his team wins or loses and is busting his ass to win every game than a 5 tool stud that views playing the way I view my job and sits out 2 weeks for a muscle strain the first player wouldnt miss a game for. JD Drew is one of the most genuinely talented players I've ever seen play, but I would take Trot Nixon over him every day of the week because I know that when the shit hits the fan Nixon is going to be out there giving everything he has to win that game, where Drew is going to play the exact same way he plays the first game of spring training. I think you guys undervalue things like hustle and heart and overvalue things like OPS and VORP.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:34 pm 
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MattA751 wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


These kind of comments make me think people overvalue things like "leadership" and "hustle". There's certainly something to be said for those things and I understand how they can increase or decrease the value of a player, but there's a pretty huge chasm of on-field value between Drew and Ross, and I'm not sure "intangibles" are enough to overcome that difference.


I think it's a case by case basis...I definitely think if the guy is a total a-hole, that can play into things big time. But in the case of Drew vs Ross I agree with you. Cody Ross is overvalued by Red Sox fans big time. And again, I like the guy. But paying him 9 million a year (especially when you play in the NL West with all those cavernous ballparks) is actually probably just as bad as Drew's Red Sox deal in terms of overpaying.


Is Ross's deal really that bad though when you are paying Johnny Gomes 5 million? Maybe Gomes will be just as good as Ross, he easily could be, but I really hate the Red Sox trend of letting players that have proven they can thrive in Boston go when the money for the replacement was similar. It's like letting Johnny Damon walk because Coco Crisp looks comparable on paper.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:34 pm 
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I'm mostly with you, numbers, but don't badmouth OPS as a stat.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:01 pm 
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I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:05 pm 
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Sure. It's just that in the wake of the Trout vs Cabrera MVP debate lots of anti-saber guys dismissed OPS as the same type of stat as UZR or WARP and that's a bunch of horse shit.

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