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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:31 pm 
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mick7184 wrote:
I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


I'm not saying they need to be the exclusive measure of a player's value. All I'm saying is that on-field performance should be the primary analysis, while all these intangibles should be secondary.

Here's an example. Assume things like speed, defense and contract demands are relatively equal:
Player A is coming off a season where his OPS was .925. His teammates have questioned his effort level and willingness to play through injuries.
Player B is coming off a season where his OPS was .815. He was a fan favourite because he always gave it 110% and has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

Who do you take?

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:46 pm 
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PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


I'm not saying they need to be the exclusive measure of a player's value. All I'm saying is that on-field performance should be the primary analysis, while all these intangibles should be secondary.

Here's an example. Assume things like speed, defense and contract demands are relatively equal:
Player A is coming off a season where his OPS was .925. His teammates have questioned his effort level and willingness to play through injuries.
Player B is coming off a season where his OPS was .815. He was a fan favourite because he always gave it 110% and has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

Who do you take?

Yeah, Mick. Who would you prefer, Gonzalez or Ross?

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:51 pm 
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cutuphalfdead wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


I'm not saying they need to be the exclusive measure of a player's value. All I'm saying is that on-field performance should be the primary analysis, while all these intangibles should be secondary.

Here's an example. Assume things like speed, defense and contract demands are relatively equal:
Player A is coming off a season where his OPS was .925. His teammates have questioned his effort level and willingness to play through injuries.
Player B is coming off a season where his OPS was .815. He was a fan favourite because he always gave it 110% and has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

Who do you take?

Yeah, Mick. Who would you prefer, Gonzalez or Ross?


:lol:

It's Drew, but still...

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:55 pm 
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PhilPritchard wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


I'm not saying they need to be the exclusive measure of a player's value. All I'm saying is that on-field performance should be the primary analysis, while all these intangibles should be secondary.

Here's an example. Assume things like speed, defense and contract demands are relatively equal:
Player A is coming off a season where his OPS was .925. His teammates have questioned his effort level and willingness to play through injuries.
Player B is coming off a season where his OPS was .815. He was a fan favourite because he always gave it 110% and has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

Who do you take?

Yeah, Mick. Who would you prefer, Gonzalez or Ross?


:lol:

It's Drew, but still...

whoops

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:59 pm 
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mick7184 wrote:
MattA751 wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


These kind of comments make me think people overvalue things like "leadership" and "hustle". There's certainly something to be said for those things and I understand how they can increase or decrease the value of a player, but there's a pretty huge chasm of on-field value between Drew and Ross, and I'm not sure "intangibles" are enough to overcome that difference.


I think it's a case by case basis...I definitely think if the guy is a total a-hole, that can play into things big time. But in the case of Drew vs Ross I agree with you. Cody Ross is overvalued by Red Sox fans big time. And again, I like the guy. But paying him 9 million a year (especially when you play in the NL West with all those cavernous ballparks) is actually probably just as bad as Drew's Red Sox deal in terms of overpaying.


Is Ross's deal really that bad though when you are paying Johnny Gomes 5 million? Maybe Gomes will be just as good as Ross, he easily could be, but I really hate the Red Sox trend of letting players that have proven they can thrive in Boston go when the money for the replacement was similar. It's like letting Johnny Damon walk because Coco Crisp looks comparable on paper.


Ross' deal is worse because of the fact that he's going to Arizona to play in a division where the ballparks won't be as friendly to him as Fenway was...

But one bad contract doesn't mean another bad contract is ok...I wouldn't have given Ross more than 2 years

Besides, they have a much better track record on letting people walk...letting Damon go was the right move (the fact that Crisp was the wrong replacement doesn't change that), same with Bay, Lowe, Pedro etc. They were wrong on Beltre (though that was a far tougher situation because of all the parts involved, with Ortiz, Youkilis, Martinez, etc), and more than anything, they were wrong on Papelbon. Hell, the last time they gave into public pressure, it blew up in their face with Lowell.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:02 pm 
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PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


I'm not saying they need to be the exclusive measure of a player's value. All I'm saying is that on-field performance should be the primary analysis, while all these intangibles should be secondary.

Here's an example. Assume things like speed, defense and contract demands are relatively equal:
Player A is coming off a season where his OPS was .925. His teammates have questioned his effort level and willingness to play through injuries.
Player B is coming off a season where his OPS was .815. He was a fan favourite because he always gave it 110% and has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

Who do you take?


in a vacuum you take player A

but baseball clubhouses aren't vacuums, that's the point Mick and I are trying to make here

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:04 pm 
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cutuphalfdead wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
I'm not badmouthing any stat, they all have value as evaluating tools. I'm just saying that people that rely on stats as the exclusive measure of a player's value are missing the big picture. Gonzalez is a perfect example of it, the guy might put up numbers but you dont want him anywhere near your team if youre trying to win a world series.


I'm not saying they need to be the exclusive measure of a player's value. All I'm saying is that on-field performance should be the primary analysis, while all these intangibles should be secondary.

Here's an example. Assume things like speed, defense and contract demands are relatively equal:
Player A is coming off a season where his OPS was .925. His teammates have questioned his effort level and willingness to play through injuries.
Player B is coming off a season where his OPS was .815. He was a fan favourite because he always gave it 110% and has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy.

Who do you take?

Yeah, Mick. Who would you prefer, Gonzalez or Ross?


If it's Ross on his current deal and Gonzalez on his, Ross, without question. Drew's 5/75 against Gonzalez and his current contract? Drew, only because it's less years and less money, both are undesirable. Actually I would prefer Drew to Gonzalez anyway, as I think Gonzalez was a major negative influence on the clubhouse, whereas Drew basically just kept to himself and did his mediocre thing.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:17 pm 
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MattA751 wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
MattA751 wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


These kind of comments make me think people overvalue things like "leadership" and "hustle". There's certainly something to be said for those things and I understand how they can increase or decrease the value of a player, but there's a pretty huge chasm of on-field value between Drew and Ross, and I'm not sure "intangibles" are enough to overcome that difference.


I think it's a case by case basis...I definitely think if the guy is a total a-hole, that can play into things big time. But in the case of Drew vs Ross I agree with you. Cody Ross is overvalued by Red Sox fans big time. And again, I like the guy. But paying him 9 million a year (especially when you play in the NL West with all those cavernous ballparks) is actually probably just as bad as Drew's Red Sox deal in terms of overpaying.


Is Ross's deal really that bad though when you are paying Johnny Gomes 5 million? Maybe Gomes will be just as good as Ross, he easily could be, but I really hate the Red Sox trend of letting players that have proven they can thrive in Boston go when the money for the replacement was similar. It's like letting Johnny Damon walk because Coco Crisp looks comparable on paper.


Ross' deal is worse because of the fact that he's going to Arizona to play in a division where the ballparks won't be as friendly to him as Fenway was...

But one bad contract doesn't mean another bad contract is ok...I wouldn't have given Ross more than 2 years

Besides, they have a much better track record on letting people walk...letting Damon go was the right move (the fact that Crisp was the wrong replacement doesn't change that), same with Bay, Lowe, Pedro etc. They were wrong on Beltre (though that was a far tougher situation because of all the parts involved, with Ortiz, Youkilis, Martinez, etc), and more than anything, they were wrong on Papelbon. Hell, the last time they gave into public pressure, it blew up in their face with Lowell.


I disagree on Damon, he was still a valuable productive player by the end of that contract he signed with the Yankees, which was the whole argument against signing him. He was also better than anything they put in CF during the same time period. Maybe if you had saved that money and found a better CF it would have been the right move, but they didnt and I would have taken Damon at the money he was making over what they threw out there for the money they did. I might disagree on Lowe as well, I think he earned the money he was paid by the Dodgers and was a consistent number 3 starter on a good team for the majority of that deal(though his success might not have been replicated if he had stayed in the AL East instead of going to the NL West.)


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:50 pm 
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I think one thing fans also need to consider when looking at off-field value is that a lot of what we hear in the media is questionable at best, if not outright false. That's probably most evident in a place like Boston where character assassination as a player is leaving is standard practice. We saw the same thing with Dickey last week.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:27 pm 
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mick7184 wrote:
MattA751 wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
MattA751 wrote:
PhilPritchard wrote:
mick7184 wrote:
JD Drew is far more talented, but Ross brings way more to your team, which was my point. Stats dont tell you everything.


These kind of comments make me think people overvalue things like "leadership" and "hustle". There's certainly something to be said for those things and I understand how they can increase or decrease the value of a player, but there's a pretty huge chasm of on-field value between Drew and Ross, and I'm not sure "intangibles" are enough to overcome that difference.


I think it's a case by case basis...I definitely think if the guy is a total a-hole, that can play into things big time. But in the case of Drew vs Ross I agree with you. Cody Ross is overvalued by Red Sox fans big time. And again, I like the guy. But paying him 9 million a year (especially when you play in the NL West with all those cavernous ballparks) is actually probably just as bad as Drew's Red Sox deal in terms of overpaying.


Is Ross's deal really that bad though when you are paying Johnny Gomes 5 million? Maybe Gomes will be just as good as Ross, he easily could be, but I really hate the Red Sox trend of letting players that have proven they can thrive in Boston go when the money for the replacement was similar. It's like letting Johnny Damon walk because Coco Crisp looks comparable on paper.


Ross' deal is worse because of the fact that he's going to Arizona to play in a division where the ballparks won't be as friendly to him as Fenway was...

But one bad contract doesn't mean another bad contract is ok...I wouldn't have given Ross more than 2 years

Besides, they have a much better track record on letting people walk...letting Damon go was the right move (the fact that Crisp was the wrong replacement doesn't change that), same with Bay, Lowe, Pedro etc. They were wrong on Beltre (though that was a far tougher situation because of all the parts involved, with Ortiz, Youkilis, Martinez, etc), and more than anything, they were wrong on Papelbon. Hell, the last time they gave into public pressure, it blew up in their face with Lowell.


I disagree on Damon, he was still a valuable productive player by the end of that contract he signed with the Yankees, which was the whole argument against signing him. He was also better than anything they put in CF during the same time period. Maybe if you had saved that money and found a better CF it would have been the right move, but they didnt and I would have taken Damon at the money he was making over what they threw out there for the money they did. I might disagree on Lowe as well, I think he earned the money he was paid by the Dodgers and was a consistent number 3 starter on a good team for the majority of that deal(though his success might not have been replicated if he had stayed in the AL East instead of going to the NL West.)


Damon is more of a toss up, but Lowe? He sucked in 2004 (there's a reason he was in the bullpen to start the playoffs), and his numbers magically improve upon moving to the NL West (and those pitcher friendly ballparks aforementioned with Ross).

Either way, they've been right more often than they were wrong in terms of when to let people go. I still think Papelbon is the one they'll regret letting get away

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:34 am 
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man I cant wait for spring training, with no hockey, this offseason has been longer than usual.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:46 am 
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Seriously. Weekends are okay with football (though I haven't paid this much attention to the NFL in years) but mid-week I'm dying for a hockey game.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:12 pm 
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Mickey wrote:
Seriously. Weekends are okay with football (though I haven't paid this much attention to the NFL in years) but mid-week I'm dying for a hockey game.



The sports universe is so barren right now I've even caught myself watching college basketball.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:19 am 
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I can honestly say I've watched more classic NHL games on NHL Network than live NFL games this season.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:53 am 
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mick7184 wrote:
I can honestly say I've watched more classic NHL games on NHL Network than live NFL games this season.


I read the other day, Wes Welker is the only player in NFL history with 5, 100 catch seasons... yeah... screw the NFL and its rule changes to make the offense's go nuts


PhilPritchard wrote:
I think one thing fans also need to consider when looking at off-field value is that a lot of what we hear in the media is questionable at best, if not outright false. That's probably most evident in a place like Boston where character assassination as a player is leaving is standard practice. We saw the same thing with Dickey last week.


very true Phil... the 24/7 Sports talk shows NEED something to talk about.
Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and Chicago, their media and fans go way over board.
You could be one a great player for years... make one key mistake in the big game... and theyll only remember that one play, just ask Buckner...

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 MLB Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:35 pm 
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I cant speak for the other cities, but since the new ownership took over in Boston the beat writers have largely been in the team's pocket so there is very little character assassination until the players are gone, then there is an outrageous amount.


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