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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2012 2:32 pm 
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On Monday, the Broncos came to terms with kicker Matt Prater on a four-year deal. Prater, who was the team's franchise player before the deal was signed, will receive a $3 million signing bonus as part of a $13 million contract. And it's not entirely clear that the Broncos should have brought him back if he offered to play for the veteran's minimum.

In the past, we've covered why slapping your kicker with the franchise tag is an ill-advised move. For a quick reminder, consider the table below, which notes the incredible lack of consistency in the field goal percentage of kickers with 20 attempts in consecutive seasons:
From To Kickers Group Avg, Year 2
70.0% 74.9% 30 82.4%
75.0% 79.9% 52 81.8%
80.0% 84.9% 74 82.8%
85.0% 88.9% 59 82.6%
89.0% 99.9% 41 81.1%

The point is simple: There's no year-to-year consistency with kickers, so there's no point in paying a premium for an "accurate" kicker. Teams who spend money on their kickers are usually paying for the illusion of certainty as opposed to any real comfort. Do you know who the highest-paid kicker in football was last year? It was Billy Cundiff, who parlayed a career year with the Ravens in 2010 into a $15 million contract before last season. You might also remember Cundiff subsequently missing the single most important kick of the year, a 32-yard chip shot against the Patriots that would have pushed the AFC Championship Game into overtime.

Things are a little different with the Broncos and Matt Prater. Normally, teams lock up their kickers after they've had fantastic seasons. It's fair to say that Matt Prater's had a noteworthy season. An eventful season. Certainly, an exciting one. But it's not entirely clear that Matt Prater was an above-average kicker in 2011, and Denver's decision to lock him up represents one of the many ways in which organizations fool themselves into spending money in the wrong places.

Start with the facts. Matt Prater hit 19 of his 25 field goals last year, producing a conversion rate of 76.0 percent. Among qualifying kickers, that placed him 28th out of 33. And it would be one thing if Prater had just come off of an off year — after all, the chart above points out how random kicker accuracy can be — but he's now hit 78.4 percent of his field goals across five pro seasons. That ranks 37th out of 44 regular kickers over that time frame, so it's safe to say that Prater's not known for his accuracy.

Ah, but his leg strength! Prater is regarded as having a boomer, and the stats back it up, as Prater is 12-for-16 from 50-plus yards during his time with the Broncos. It's certainly fair to give Prater some bonus points for attempting (and converting) so many field goals from distance, but remember that Prater's also attempting many of those kicks in the thin air of Denver, where every kicker in the league gets the benefit of some extra leg.

Football Outsiders adjusts every field goal attempt for both the distance of the kick and the stadium in which the kick is being attempted, assigns that kick a value based upon the historical likelihood of success, and then notes whether the kicker's produced more points on field goals than the league average in the same situations might suggest. As it turns out, in Prater's case, it's less. Even if you throw out his dreadful 2008 season, Prater's been a below-average kicker during his tenure with the Broncos.
Year Prater Points vs. Expectation
2011 -5.2
2010 2.4
2009 -1.1
2008 -12.2
Total -16.1

It's hard to find any hint of that big leg on kickoffs, either, especially after the league instituted the shorter field for kickoffs before last season. Last year, there were 75 kickoffs (excluding onside kicks) in Denver home games and just 15 of those were returned. Prater was responsible for just three of the 15 kickoffs that were returned, which suggests that he was booting the ball deeper than opposing kickers, but that wasn't really the case. Nine of those 12 kicks returned by the Broncos were plays in which the ball went five or more yards deep into the end zone and Denver chose to run the ball out anyway. For the Broncos, that was a purposeful tactic: With an offense that struggled to move the ball, the kickoff return could have ranked among their most effective plays. There were only two kickoffs last season in Denver that failed to reach the end zone, and one was by Prater.

Away from Denver, Prater produced touchbacks on 50 percent of his kickoffs last year. Excluding games played in the thin air of Denver, the rest of the league's kickers booted touchbacks on the road at about a 47 percent clip. That's a difference of about one extra touchback on the road per year. Perhaps Prater will do better next season, but at the moment, he looks to be about a league-average kickoff guy.3

So if he has below-average accuracy and is average on kickoffs, why are the Broncos paying Prater? Because he hit a bunch of game-winning field goals, you dummy! In fact, four Broncos games during the 2011 season ended with a game-winning Prater field goal, three of which came in overtime. Throw in a key onside kick against the Dolphins, and you've got a clutch kicker on your hands, right?

It's pretty easy to poke holes in that logic. For one, let's start with that onside kick. Watch it again and you see a kick that hits an unmolested Miami player right in the hands, only for the snakebitten Dolphins to fumble the kick right away. The outcome was great, but the execution was questionable. Either way, one onside kick isn't enough to form an opinion about whether Prater's good or bad at the task. Most kickers don't produce onside kicks frequently enough over the course of an entire career to form a meaningful sample.

As for the walkoffs, while they were valuable, they're far more indicative of opportunity than skill. Think about why Prater had the opportunity to kick four game-winning field goals at all. Hint: The reason's in New York now. The Broncos played a disproportionate number of close games this year, and because they ran an extremely conservative offense with the game on the line under Tim Tebow, they were happy to hand the ball over to their kicker for game-winning kicks, even if it meant ignoring the possibility of scoring a touchdown. Consider that Prater had three game-winners in overtime this past season and just one over his previous four years in the league. Even if he was some sort of clutch kicker, he's not going to have the opportunities to show that skill off at any sort of meaningful level over the next four years. And in Prater's case, it's going to take a heck of a lot of clutch kicks to overcome how average he is before those clutch moments.

Finally, while it's fun to build myths around kickers conquering their nerves and hitting huge field goals for their teams in key situations, the reality is that there isn't anything extraordinary about hitting field goals in overtime. From 2006 to 2011, kickers hit 82.2 percent of their field goals in regulation and 82.7 percent of their kicks in overtime. There's some bias in there, as teams are likely to settle for short field goals in overtime in a way that isn't the case during regulation, but it's pretty clear that kickers don't turn to dust once overtime begins.

OK. So the Broncos overpaid for Prater. It's only a little over $3 million per year, and Denver gets to reward a player who made their fan base very happy last season. Who cares, right? Well, if you're a Broncos fan, you should care, because the Prater signing creates problems for the team in terms of opportunity cost. The difference between using Prater and signing someone like Shayne Graham will be close to $2.5 million per year over the terms of the deal. That's $2.5 million that the Broncos can't use on a deal to lock up left tackle Ryan Clady or on a steady backup behind Willis McGahee at halfback. And there's no guarantee that Prater will be any better of a kicker in 2012 than Graham would be.

Denver's thin air allows them to get more out of average kickers than anyone else in football. They should use that to their advantage and exploit a built-in market inefficiency by being thrifty at kicker and applying the savings elsewhere. Instead, the Broncos have handcuffed themselves to a known mediocrity for years to come


I actually remember complaining last year about how Prater was being credit for kicking game winners, but people were ignoring that he missed kicks earlier in the game that, had they been good, would have meant there was no need for the "dramatic" late game kick.


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2012 3:13 pm 
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Prater has steadied his career with some big kicks and good for him, but he's not accurate. He had the job in Atlanta and missed I believe 3 potential game winners prompting his ouster.

He's a little bit spray and pray even though he's got great distance.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2012 4:48 pm 
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I preferred the first half of that article

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:24 pm 
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did anyone see the name of the ravens broadcaster? :shake: :haha:

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:18 pm 
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Oh look, another degenerate in Valley Ranch.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... tting-her/

Quote:
Dez Bryant accused of grabbing his mom by the hair and hitting her
Posted by Michael David Smith on July 17, 2012, 1:15 PM EDT

Police in DeSoto, Texas, said today that Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant grabbed his mother’s hair and hit her before he was arrested and charged with misdemeanor family violence.

“It’s pretty straightforward,” DeSoto Police Captain Ron Smith said, via the Star-Telegram. “He and his mom got in an argument. It’s physical. She got some injuries. We made the arrest.”

It is not clear to what extent Bryant’s mother was injured, although she did not need to be taken to the hospital. The police report says Bryant slapped his mother’s face with a baseball cap and pulled her hair. Some reports have said the incident between Bryant and his mother began as a fight between Bryant and his half brother, but Smith said he doesn’t know why Bryant and his family were fighting.

“Whatever led to it is really not an issue for us,” Smith said. “We have an injured person. We have a suspect. We’re going to move forward.”

If convicted Bryant could serve up to a year in jail. He could also be facing discipline for violating the NFL’s personal-conduct policy.

Tough to say nobody saw this coming.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 6:03 pm 
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For the record, I'm going to wait on this. Bryant's mother does not have the best credibility in the world, not that Bryant does either, I just don't think he's going to need Rusty Hardin for this one.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:01 pm 
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thodoks wrote:
Oh look, another degenerate in Valley Ranch.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... tting-her/

Quote:
Dez Bryant accused of grabbing his mom by the hair and hitting her
Posted by Michael David Smith on July 17, 2012, 1:15 PM EDT

Police in DeSoto, Texas, said today that Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant grabbed his mother’s hair and hit her before he was arrested and charged with misdemeanor family violence.

“It’s pretty straightforward,” DeSoto Police Captain Ron Smith said, via the Star-Telegram. “He and his mom got in an argument. It’s physical. She got some injuries. We made the arrest.”

It is not clear to what extent Bryant’s mother was injured, although she did not need to be taken to the hospital. The police report says Bryant slapped his mother’s face with a baseball cap and pulled her hair. Some reports have said the incident between Bryant and his mother began as a fight between Bryant and his half brother, but Smith said he doesn’t know why Bryant and his family were fighting.

“Whatever led to it is really not an issue for us,” Smith said. “We have an injured person. We have a suspect. We’re going to move forward.”

If convicted Bryant could serve up to a year in jail. He could also be facing discipline for violating the NFL’s personal-conduct policy.

Tough to say nobody saw this coming.

Jeff Ireland post.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:09 pm 
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4/5 wrote:
thodoks wrote:
Oh look, another degenerate in Valley Ranch.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... tting-her/

Quote:
Dez Bryant accused of grabbing his mom by the hair and hitting her
Posted by Michael David Smith on July 17, 2012, 1:15 PM EDT

Police in DeSoto, Texas, said today that Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant grabbed his mother’s hair and hit her before he was arrested and charged with misdemeanor family violence.

“It’s pretty straightforward,” DeSoto Police Captain Ron Smith said, via the Star-Telegram. “He and his mom got in an argument. It’s physical. She got some injuries. We made the arrest.”

It is not clear to what extent Bryant’s mother was injured, although she did not need to be taken to the hospital. The police report says Bryant slapped his mother’s face with a baseball cap and pulled her hair. Some reports have said the incident between Bryant and his mother began as a fight between Bryant and his half brother, but Smith said he doesn’t know why Bryant and his family were fighting.

“Whatever led to it is really not an issue for us,” Smith said. “We have an injured person. We have a suspect. We’re going to move forward.”

If convicted Bryant could serve up to a year in jail. He could also be facing discipline for violating the NFL’s personal-conduct policy.

Tough to say nobody saw this coming.

Jeff Ireland post.

why did the Pats trade out of picking this guy?!!

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:02 am 
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Great player, obviously shit as a human being unfortunately.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:21 am 
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nothing about Marshawn Lynch getting arrested?

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:42 am 
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I'll see your Marshawn Lynch and raise you an Elvis Dumerville. Good grief there are some dumbasses in the NFL...

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_21085119/elvis-dumervil-arrest-miami-road-rage


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:54 am 
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the Bills trading Lynch away makes me happier every season.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 6:48 pm 
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verb_to_trust wrote:
I'll see your Marshawn Lynch and raise you an Elvis Dumerville. Good grief there are some dumbasses in the NFL...

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_21085119/elvis-dumervil-arrest-miami-road-rage

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:22 pm 
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Robert Quinn arrested DWI. Talent doesn't matter if none of them ever make it on the field.

Pearl of a team UNC. Butch Davis should never get another coaching job in college football ever again, I'm not sure if there's a reason he'll get virtually any job in coaching.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:27 pm 
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Why teams draft these kinds of guys I'll never, ever understand.

I'm sure the Janoris Jenkins saga will end well.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:28 pm 
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I may not have the timeline exactly right, but I believe the coach behind Bill Belichick on Bob Kraft's 2000 wishlist was Butch Davis.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 6:51 pm 
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thodoks wrote:
I may not have the timeline exactly right, but I believe the coach behind Bill Belichick on Bob Kraft's 2000 wishlist was Butch Davis.



Maybe he likes reclamation projects from Cleveland?

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 7:52 pm 
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Vick said that the eagles have the potential to be a dynasty...


:roll:


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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:11 pm 
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I Hail Randy Moss wrote:
Vick said that the eagles have the potential to be a dynasty...


:roll:

its bad enough we have to hear espn talk about it all day. mike vick has said alot of dumb stuff, he's not gonna stop any time soon.

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 Post subject: Re: 2012 NFL Offseason
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:21 pm 
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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... c-in-2008/

Seriously????? Wow.

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