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 Post subject: FBL pending trade offer analysis
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:27 am 
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I'm not going to say which team I am so as to not color the debate.

Team A has Jason Schmidt, Chris Young, Daniel Cabrera, Ervin Santana, and Francisco Liriano. Team B has Felix Hernandez, Zach Duke, Jeff Suppan, Brad Radke, Matt Clement, and Mark Prior.

League settings: 4 SP slots, 2 DL, 1 bench (for the entire team), W/L/SV/HLD/BB/ERA/K per 9/K:BB

A trade has been proposed by one of the teams sending Hernandez to team A and Schmidt and Young to team B.

Do you take this trade? Is one side benefitting more than the other?

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:31 am 
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If I'm team A I like that deal. I never like giving up 2 for 1's, but Young won't hit near his #'s last year and Schmidt is overrated. King Felix will be amazing by the 2nd half.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:41 am 
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Here are the potential plusses and minuses for both sides, that I see:

Team A
++Gets the bonafide #1 SP they don't have - in theory.
+Opens up roster space (see rules, very limited in this league)
--Cannot replace either pitcher (no matter how you look at it) with similar quality from free agency/waivers
-Hernandez is having a shin splint issue
-Hernandez will not even turn 20 for 3 more days
-Two NL pitchers who are in pitchers parks for an AL pitcher
-Seattle isn't very good
-Mgmt has indicated they will "baby" him; does this mean extra rest? (e.g. fewer IP/game and more rest between starts, maybe shut down in Aug/Sep if IP are high and team is out of contention?)

Team B
+++Shores up very weak starting rotation, can drop one of the weaker pitchers
+As good as Hernandez is and his potential is, this is still a trade netting two front-of-the-rotation starters for one half prospect/half star.
-Leaves the roster with lots of potentially mediocre SP's

So I guess the benefits are more speculative for Team A with a lot of downside potential, and the benefits are more tangible for Team B with not a lot of outperformance potential. At least, that's how I see it.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:49 am 
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Landry
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The only REAL problem I see is that team A is essentially trading for potential. While I think King Felix probably has more than anybody on the planet, you're still projecting. While Young won't be AL batting champ again, he'll still be solid. It's a tough decision for either side, and the more I look at it the more I don't like the deal for team A. Hmm...


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:51 am 
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parchy wrote:
The only REAL problem I see is that team A is essentially trading for potential. While I think King Felix probably has more than anybody on the planet, you're still projecting. While Young won't be AL batting champ again, he'll still be solid. It's a tough decision for either side, and the more I look at it the more I don't like the deal for team A. Hmm...


AL batting champ?

Not Michael Young. Chris Young, pitcher who used to be on the Rangers :)

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Saw you at: 4/23/03, 6/13/03, 6/18/03, 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/5/04, 5/16/06, 5/17/06, EV 8/22/08, 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 10/31/09, 5/7/10, EV 6/28/11, 9/3/11, 9/4/11!

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