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 Post subject: Album Sales/ Chart Position Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:34 pm 
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Havent Seen one up- Here's My predictions:

1st Week Chart position: #2 (behind tool)
1st week sales: 200,000
Total sales: 900,000


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:37 pm 
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First week: 248,000
Total Projection: 1,200,000

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:37 pm 
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#1 in first week...maybe were in for a surprise, i think they can do it
-250,000..shit i read that rascal flatts sold about 800,000 first week out i think PJ can hit 250
-top out at least platinum...


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:40 pm 
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1st week sales:

#2 with sales of 185-200k (Tool will be #1 w/ sales of 275-350k)

Total sales:

750-900k (it has a chance at platinum, but i won't be surprised if it falls short)


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:41 pm 
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I knwo someone has a way of getting this kind of information: How many units have their albums sold to this day?

I would need to see that info before I could make any kind of prediction.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:43 pm 
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mowbs wrote:
I knwo someone has a way of getting this kind of information: How many units have their albums sold to this day?

I would need to see that info before I could make any kind of prediction.


we've got that somewhere. This is rough

ten-10 million

vs-6
vitalogy-5

no code 1.5
yield 1.5
binaural 1
riot act-500,000


It'll do 300,000 in week 1 and will go platnium. This will eventually outsell the new tool record, which will not age well.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:44 pm 
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300.000 first week,
comes in at n. 2
goes twice platinum.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:44 pm 
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600,000 total sales maybe


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:44 pm 
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stip wrote:
mowbs wrote:
I knwo someone has a way of getting this kind of information: How many units have their albums sold to this day?

I would need to see that info before I could make any kind of prediction.


we've got that somewhere. This is rough

ten-10 million

vs-6
vitalogy-5

no code 1.5
yield 1.5
binaural 1
riot act-500,000


It'll do 300,000 in week 1 and will go platnium. This will eventually outsell the new tool record, which will not age well.


Binaural went plat?...Nice. How about Lost Dogs and RVM? Haven't their DVDs sold a lot also?


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:45 pm 
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stip wrote:
It'll do 300,000 in week 1 and will go platnium. This will eventually outsell the new tool record, which will not age well.

:lol:

hey, i can't fault your enthusiasm, but considering Riot Act sold 500k and Lateralus is currently around 2.5 million... (500k the first week vs. Riot Act's 164k)


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:45 pm 
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i dont see it hitting 1 million

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:46 pm 
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Ten

August 27, 1991
US #2; UK #18
9,400,000

Vs.

October 19, 1993
US #1; UK #2
7,000,000

Vitalogy

December 6, 1994
US #1; UK #4
5,000,000

No Code

August 27, 1996
US #1; UK #3
1,400,000


Yield

February 3, 1998
US #2; UK #5
1,500,000

Binaural

May 16, 2000
US #2; UK #7
800,000

Riot Act

November 12, 2002
US #5; UK #34
500,000

Pearl Jam

May 2, 2006

*Vitalogy holds the interesting regard that while it was released first on vinyl (on November 22, 1994, more than two weeks before its release on cd [4]), it still debuted at number 55 on the Billboard Top 200, the first vinyl record album to chart since the introduction of the compact disc format.

[edit]
Live albums and compilations

Live on Two Legs

November 24, 1998
US #15
1,000,000

Lost Dogs

November 11, 2003
US #15
250,000

Live at Benaroya Hall

July 27, 2004
US #18
168,000

Rearviewmirror

November 16, 2004
US #16
500,000


*In addition to the live albums Live on Two Legs, Live at Benaroya Hall and a myriad of live versions of studio songs spread across singles as b-sides, the band has continued their official bootlegs series released a double-disc (and sometimes triple) album of live recordings for each show of each tour since their 2000 European tour.

[edit]
Charted songs
Year
charted Title Chart Album
USA UK
Hot 100 Modern rock Mainstream rock Singles
1992 "Even Flow" 21 3 27 Ten
1992 "Alive" 18 16 16
1992 "Jeremy" 79 5 5 15
1993 "Black" 20 3
1993 "Go" 8 3 Vs.
1993 "Crazy Mary" 8 26
1994 "Yellow Ledbetter" 26 21 Lost Dogs
1994 "Daughter" 97 1 1 18 Vs.
1994 "Dissident" 3 14
1994 "Elderly Woman Behind a Counter in a Small Town" 17
1994 "Glorified G" 39
1994 "Animal" 21
1994 "Tremor Christ" 18 16 16 Vitalogy
1994 "Spin the Black Circle" 11 16 10
1995 "Not for You" 38 12 34
1995 "Immortality" 31 10
1995 "Corduroy" 13 22
1995 "Better Man" 2 1
1995 "I Got ID" 7 3 2 25 Mirror Ball (Merkin Ball EP)
1996 "Who You Are" 31 1 5 18 No Code
1996 "Red Mosquito" 37
1996 "Hail Hail" 9 9
1996 "Leaving Here" 31 24 Lost Dogs
1997 "Off He Goes" 31 34 No Code
1998 "Wishlist" 47 6 6 30 Yield
1998 "In Hiding" 13 14
1998 "Given to Fly" 21 3 1 12
1998 "Do the Evolution" 33 40
1999 "Last Kiss" 2 2 5 42 Lost Dogs
2000 "Nothing As It Seems" 49 10 3 22 Binaural
2000 "Light Years" 26 17 52
2002 "I Am Mine" 43 6 7 26 Riot Act
2003 "Save You" 29 23
2003 "Love Boat Captain"
2006 "World Wide Suicide" 41 1 2 Pearl Jam


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:46 pm 
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Cal Varnsen wrote:
i dont see it hitting 1 million

def their best shot at hitting it post Yield, but i won't be surprised when it tops out just shy either


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:47 pm 
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solace wrote:
stip wrote:
It'll do 300,000 in week 1 and will go platnium. This will eventually outsell the new tool record, which will not age well.

:lol:

hey, i can't fault your enthusiasm, but considering Riot Act sold 500k and Lateralus is currently around 2.5 million... (500k the first week vs. Riot Act's 164k)



I think the new tool album will outsell it in week 1 but I don't think they could have written a less accessible album if they tried. I can't picture this having staying power. What can they follow up vicarious (which is a great song) with?

The new PJ record is very radio friendly and has much stronger buzz than the last two records. Really than the last 4.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:47 pm 
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failed smile wrote:
Ten

August 27, 1991
US #2; UK #18
9,400,000

Vs.

October 19, 1993
US #1; UK #2
7,000,000

Vitalogy

December 6, 1994
US #1; UK #4
5,000,000

No Code

August 27, 1996
US #1; UK #3
1,400,000


Yield

February 3, 1998
US #2; UK #5
1,500,000

Binaural

May 16, 2000
US #2; UK #7
800,000

Riot Act

November 12, 2002
US #5; UK #34
500,000

Pearl Jam

May 2, 2006

*Vitalogy holds the interesting regard that while it was released first on vinyl (on November 22, 1994, more than two weeks before its release on cd [4]), it still debuted at number 55 on the Billboard Top 200, the first vinyl record album to chart since the introduction of the compact disc format.

[edit]
Live albums and compilations

Live on Two Legs

November 24, 1998
US #15
1,000,000

Lost Dogs

November 11, 2003
US #15
250,000

Live at Benaroya Hall

July 27, 2004
US #18
168,000

Rearviewmirror

November 16, 2004
US #16
500,000


*In addition to the live albums Live on Two Legs, Live at Benaroya Hall and a myriad of live versions of studio songs spread across singles as b-sides, the band has continued their official bootlegs series released a double-disc (and sometimes triple) album of live recordings for each show of each tour since their 2000 European tour.

[edit]
Charted songs
Year
charted Title Chart Album
USA UK
Hot 100 Modern rock Mainstream rock Singles
1992 "Even Flow" 21 3 27 Ten
1992 "Alive" 18 16 16
1992 "Jeremy" 79 5 5 15
1993 "Black" 20 3
1993 "Go" 8 3 Vs.
1993 "Crazy Mary" 8 26
1994 "Yellow Ledbetter" 26 21 Lost Dogs
1994 "Daughter" 97 1 1 18 Vs.
1994 "Dissident" 3 14
1994 "Elderly Woman Behind a Counter in a Small Town" 17
1994 "Glorified G" 39
1994 "Animal" 21
1994 "Tremor Christ" 18 16 16 Vitalogy
1994 "Spin the Black Circle" 11 16 10
1995 "Not for You" 38 12 34
1995 "Immortality" 31 10
1995 "Corduroy" 13 22
1995 "Better Man" 2 1
1995 "I Got ID" 7 3 2 25 Mirror Ball (Merkin Ball EP)
1996 "Who You Are" 31 1 5 18 No Code
1996 "Red Mosquito" 37
1996 "Hail Hail" 9 9
1996 "Leaving Here" 31 24 Lost Dogs
1997 "Off He Goes" 31 34 No Code
1998 "Wishlist" 47 6 6 30 Yield
1998 "In Hiding" 13 14
1998 "Given to Fly" 21 3 1 12
1998 "Do the Evolution" 33 40
1999 "Last Kiss" 2 2 5 42 Lost Dogs
2000 "Nothing As It Seems" 49 10 3 22 Binaural
2000 "Light Years" 26 17 52
2002 "I Am Mine" 43 6 7 26 Riot Act
2003 "Save You" 29 23
2003 "Love Boat Captain"
2006 "World Wide Suicide" 41 1 2 Pearl Jam


That is from Wikipedia and it is very dated. Ten has sold over 12 million copies.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:50 pm 
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stip wrote:

I think the new tool album will outsell it in week 1 but I don't think they could have written a less accessible album if they tried. I can't picture this having staying power. What can they follow up vicarious (which is a great song) with?

The new PJ record is very radio friendly and has much stronger buzz than the last two records. Really than the last 4.

the buzz surrounding this new album is definitely much higher than the last 2, no doubt, but not on the level of Yield. if you were around during that time, the buzz on the net and in print media was just INSANE, due to people feeling let down w/ No Code. it sold a ton right out of the gate. they did as much if not more promo for that record than they have so far for this one (granted no SNL). there were interviews and covers of tons of magazines in '98, not to mention the whole Yield leak thing too that gained the album a ton of notoriety.

Lateralus wasn't accessible either save for 2-3 songs, and still sold 2.5 mill, this one will at least sel 1.5-2 million, i guarantee it, Tool has TONS of diehards. i don't even think Vicarious is all that great of a song, but you're right, it's the most radio friendly.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:51 pm 
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well i know they def sold ONE album... right here.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:54 pm 
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solace wrote:
stip wrote:

I think the new tool album will outsell it in week 1 but I don't think they could have written a less accessible album if they tried. I can't picture this having staying power. What can they follow up vicarious (which is a great song) with?

The new PJ record is very radio friendly and has much stronger buzz than the last two records. Really than the last 4.

the buzz surrounding this new album is definitely much higher than the last 2, no doubt, but not on the level of Yield. if you were around during that time, the buzz on the net and in print media was just INSANE, due to people feeling let down w/ No Code. it sold a ton right out of the gate. they did as much if not more promo for that record than they have so far for this one (granted no SNL). there were interviews and covers of tons of magazines in '98, not to mention the whole Yield leak thing too that gained the album a ton of notoriety.

Lateralus wasn't accessible either save for 2-3 songs, and still sold 2.5 mill, this one will at least sel 1.5-2 million, i guarantee it, Tool has TONS of diehards. i don't even think Vicarious is all that great of a song, but you're right, it's the most radio friendly.


Good points about Yield promotion, but how can you think this outsells YIeld? We are in a challenging time for record companies and even popular rock albums dont go double platinum unless they are blockbusters. Case in point, Coldplay's latest has sold 3 mill in the US and the hype there was 100x this hype. This album wont even ship 1 million let alone sell it. PJ is in a category above niche but below massive mainstream.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:54 pm 
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solace wrote:
stip wrote:

I think the new tool album will outsell it in week 1 but I don't think they could have written a less accessible album if they tried. I can't picture this having staying power. What can they follow up vicarious (which is a great song) with?

The new PJ record is very radio friendly and has much stronger buzz than the last two records. Really than the last 4.

the buzz surrounding this new album is definitely much higher than the last 2, no doubt, but not on the level of Yield. if you were around during that time, the buzz on the net and in print media was just INSANE, due to people feeling let down w/ No Code. it sold a ton right out of the gate. they did as much if not more promo for that record than they have so far for this one (granted no SNL). there were interviews and covers of tons of magazines in '98, not to mention the whole Yield leak thing too that gained the album a ton of notoriety.

Lateralus wasn't accessible either save for 2-3 songs, and still sold 2.5 mill, this one will at least sel 1.5-2 million, i guarantee it, Tool has TONS of diehards. i don't even think Vicarious is all that great of a song, but you're right, it's the most radio friendly.


this is a better album than Yield--and the buzz is not for the new album, but also about the new album, if that distinction makes sense. A lot of people felt let down by yield when it wasn't ten.

Lateralus sold 2.5 million largely because A-I think it's a better record than the new tool one and B-they were still riding the aenima wave. Lateralus is a good record and did well, and people are excited for tool but this new record is not the long awaited follow up to one of the best records of the 90's. It's the long awaited follow up to a good record, and a somewhat disappointing follow up becuase it's not as good as it.

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The perfect gift for certain occasions


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:55 pm 
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how many people are going to download?
how many people are going to buy just a couple of songs?

500,000 pearl jam sold maybe
book it


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