I read an interesting blog this morning:


Bush Coalition Breaking Apart

Some liberal blogs are arguing that conservatives are trying to disassociate themselves from Bush due to the mess in Iraq and other areas (and these liberal bloggers are even quoting a commenter from one of my posts) and that the conservatives doing this are somehow unprincipled. I'd say that the opposite is true. Conservaitives are becoming so shocked by Bush's moves that they are overcoming their loyalties to a Republican leader and returning to principles. This is seen most clearly on immigration where the Right is increasingly angry with Bush's disloyalty to them. They aren't turning against Bush on immigration to score points against liberals or to shift blame to liberals. They are angry with Bush and the Open Borders crowd while the liberals want what Bush wants. John Zogby says no US President has reached as low a level of approval on a single issue as Bush has on immigration and border security.

Thirteen percent of respondents in a new Zogby Interactive poll approved of Mr. Bush's handling of immigration, and 9 percent approved of his handling of border security. Among conservative and very conservative people, he was below 25 percent.

Meanwhile, a separate Associated Press-Ipsos Public Affairs poll released yesterday found 45 percent of self-identified conservatives disapprove of Mr. Bush's job as president, and 65 percent disapprove of the Republican-led Congress.

"One of the things clearly that's happening is a breakdown of the coalition that elected and re-elected the president," said John Zogby, who said his surveys show Mr. Bush getting less than 45 percent support among groups such as investors, NASCAR fans, gun owners and Catholics, and just over 50 percent among born-again Christians.

He also said he had never seen any presidential ratings as low as Mr. Bush scored on immigration and border security.

A majority of born-again Christians continue to be Bush's suckers. No, his being a fundamentalist isn't making him a better leader. Wake up. Stop putting your faith in a human. It is contrary to your religion. [ ]

81% of Bush's base (or former base) wants the House Sensenbrenner bill to crack down on illegals while, by contrast, Bush wants amnesty, Open Borders, and a massive worker permit program. Is there a depth he can reach in the decline in his popularity on the Right where he'll listen to what people on the Right actually want? If a Republican President wants one thing (which most liberals want too btw) and the vast bulk of the Republicans want another thing then for Republicans to decide he's doing a bad job and that he's a liberal doesn't seem unprincipled to me. It sounds pretty reasonable. His spending, support for racial preferences, immigration policies, and other policies are plenty reason to think the guy is not a conservative.

Bush's argument for continued US involvement Iraq is a liberal argument. Paleoconservatives argue that the Iraqis are not liberals, not democrats, too dumb to run a democracy, too entwined in consanguineous marriages to have loyalties to the state. Bush's response? We are racists and liberalism/democracy has universal appeal. He's making a liberal argument on Iraq. That's why liberals can't manage to organize serious opposition to him on Iraq (you don't hear Hillary Clinton calling for withdrawal). They can't challenge Bush on the empirical evidence without abandoning the assumptions at the base of modern liberalism that hold it has universal appeal the world over. Instead they fantasize about a big right wing capitalistic oil plot (while ignoring the rather organised and intense Jewish neocon desire to help Israel). Only conservatives who have a more pessimistic view of human nature and human biodiversity realists can say why he's wrong for the real reasons he's wrong.

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If the democrats retake the Congress this year, with numbers like that, Bush could be impeached.

Bush's rating is getting so low that he it is starting to cut into his base voters. That's not a good sign.

What also might not be a good sign for the anti-conservative folk is that he may very well take some actions to appease his base while his party still comtrols both houses.

This is one reason why I don't think the Democrats should count their chickens before they hatch.

Bush has totally lost his conservative base, and Republicans running for office this year will be running on local issues and trying to distance themselves as much as possible from the White House.

Those polls for November are a lot more interesting if you take away the generic ballot.

Well, history has shown that mid-term elections usually reflect the view of how the president is doing, though.

Economy is strong!.

Bush should've never of had a conservative base, but fear and religion are powerful tools.

I agree with this. The Democrats can't just look at the polls and relax. The Congress could actually go more conservative, although it may be at the expense of corrupt Republican reps already in the House, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I think the Democrats could start using the flag for TP and still make gains in November, but they're not going to win the House without some hard work.

I think Bush should make a new push against gay marriage and abortion. That might just solve his poll problems.

I really dunno if the Democrat's will make any gains. Again, when it comes to these elections, it's going to be more about local issues than anything. I think so long as the Republican's force the Democrats into positions, the Republican's will be victorious once again. If the Republican's would push legislation right now that would include making the tax cuts permenant and securing the borders, they would force the Democrats to take positions instead of sliming their way through the summer into office. If they do that, Democrats will NOT win opposing tax cuts, and opposing immigration reform.

As I see it now, the Democrats have nothing to run on. They absolutely nothing to run on. They're running on an anti-Bush freight train that just isn't gonna work in local elections.

I pose the question. What policy are the Democrats running on? What have they been proposing? What have they been talking about? It really boils down to just investigating Bush and doing their best to stand in the way of any Bush policy measures. That's it, and that doesn't win elections. It's been in the papers on what Nancy Pelosi is gonna do when she inevitably wins the Senate Majority...she's gonna investigate Bush. That's it.

It isn't the sort of things that wins elections.

So far as the war go, people are NOT going to vote for an anti-war Democrat. They're just not gonna do it. Furthermore, I don't think you're even gonna see anti-war Democrats run for office. I think the vast majority of America now feels like the majority of this community in that we need to finish it, we can't abandon Iraq, it may have been wrong, but we need to finish what we started. I don't think an anti-war Dem stands a chance anywhere except in the most vehemently liberal districts.

I say this. Where we stand now politically is absolutely the exact same as where we stood in 2006. Bush wasn't popular. Gas prices were going up. The economy was strong. And the war was in complete stagnation.

Nothing's changed. And the Democrats are running on the same platform as they did in 04. Why does anyone think the face of the house and senate is going to change?

For the most part I really don't think the Democrats are going to take the House or Senate in 2006. Their main problem, since '94, is they have been deluding themselves into thinking that the people would raise up in a popular revolt against the evil Republicans and vote them back into the Majority. Well it's been 12 years and that hasn't happened and I doubt it will. I think this is the main reason the Democrats have not been able to form themselves into a proper opposition party. I believe a few of them are beginning to figure it out, but not enough. Most of the Democratic leadership still thinks they should jump further right to get votes, which is stupid. That's not an opposition. Why would a Republican voter, vote for a right leaning Democrat when they can just vote for a Republican.
I've heard it said the place the Democrats should be fishing for votes is that 40 - 50% of people that aren't voting rather than 5-6% of undecided voters. But to do that they would have to show how they would be different, which they are not doing.
I can’t remember how many times I've seen Democrat X or Y on TV complaining about how they can't get their "message" out, but when asked what their “message” is they can't give a clear answer.
Having said all this doesn't mean the Republicans are off the hook. One of the things I've heard said a lot about Republicans is they are better voters come election time. But this may begin to change. Prior to '94 the Republicans had one main thing going for them, they were the minority party and that gave them an advantage with voters, they could always blame Democrats for the problems of the country, but that alone wasn't enough and it took them 40 years to figure it out they need to also have solutions as well as complaints. So Republicans voted more than Democrats because they wanted their party in the majority thinking if only we were in charge things would be better. But now, after 12 years is anything that different? It's not as easy for them to blame Democrats when they are the majority party. Consider some of things you would think your average Republican voter would have a problem with. Spending maybe? Six years Republican President, Republican House and all but 2 years, Republican Senate. They have not exactly shown much restraint there. Immigration, so far they have done nothing, I really doubt they will do anything before '06, and if they run on Immigration reform and do nothing after '06. Well then they will have problem later on. A Republican you would think would be against Big Government, what do think things like NCLB or Medicare Part D are. NSA wiretapping? I could go on, Big Government. Then there are things like the Marriage Amendment, they made a lot of hay out of that prior to 2004, but now they won the Election, it's disappeared. Basically the main worry the Republicans should have is voter apathy. If Republicans become jaded with the party and don't turn out at the polls like they used to and Democrats do turn out, then they have problem.
One problem I think both parties have is the American publics need for instant gratification, people tend to expect things to get done or fixed right away. They think well I voted for my guy why isn't everything better. Politicians are partly to blame for this every election cycle they come out, if you would just vote for me I'll make everything better, and for some stupid reason people still take them at their word.
As for the Polls I really wish they would do follow up questions to some of these things. Like the Right Track/Wrong Direction one. I wish they would then ask, why do you think the country is on the wrong track? For all I know the person could be pissed because they can't smoke in bars anymore. And the congressional Polls, I wish they would ask, rather than who would prefer to run congress Dem. or Rep. but would you vote against your current congressman to see that happen. Right now the Polls say people would prefer a Democratic majority, but that Poll is meaningless if people aren't going to vote against their Republican congressman to see that happen. If the answer was yes then I’d take the poll serious.
I think the time the continued Republican majority maybe in serious doubt would be 2010 or 12, there will be a new President personally I think it will be a Republican, if it’s a Democrat esp. Hillary, which I doubt, they have less to worry about. But another Republican and they continue down the path of become just as disorganize as Democrats, I think by then Democrats may have it a little more together, the Republicans will get a big bite in the ass from voter apathy. As for 2006 the Democrats if they’re lucky may pick up a couple seats in the House, if they are real lucky they could beat Rick Santorum in Penn., but beyond that I doubt.
Personally I’m curious to see what happens in my district, since Sherwood Boehlert is retiring, it’s an open seat. It will probably stay Republican , but Boehlert has always been consider a moderate and most people like him. So you never know, people may be more in favor of moderate Democrat, than hard right Republican.