At this hour, the Democrats have picked up 28 seats in the House, with 11 contests still undecided. Certainly a great gain, but we should note that this is a very region specific gain, as Democrats have not made any significant inroads into the heart of red America.

See this excellent map from CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/ ... e/map.html

The Democratic gains are shown in light blue. Obviously, they are mostly in the northeast and midwest. If Joe Courtney manages to hold on to his slim lead in CT-02, then Chris Shays will be the last Republican Representative in New England. The majority of the other pickups are in upstate New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of these, with the exception of Indiana, are states that are either reliably Democratic as a whole, or middle of the road and generally in synch with the national political picture.

Now look at the Deep South. Apart from Heath Shuler's win in NC-11, the only other two Democratic gains were in the seats formerly held by Mark Foley and Tom DeLay. Same thing with the only seat to flip in California, where Richard Pombo, widely considered to be among the most corrupt members of Congress, was ousted in CA-11.

All you have left is a couple of stray pickups in the west. AZ-05 and CO-07 are both affluent suburban disticts that are beginning to trend more liberal than the affluent suburban vote has traditionally been. And actually, KS-02 isn't all that different in that respect, except it contains much more rural area than the other two. We'll really be able to see if real change is coming to the west if WY-AL flips, but I'm not holding my breath there.

Point is, Democrats essentially shored up the northeast, but made few gains in the rest of teh country. Take that for what it is.

Make that 29. PA-08 just fell to the Dems. Just another northeastern district...

yay illinois 10!

Heath Shuler won? whoa. It's probably the first thing he's won since he was at Tennessee

Olbermann quote right after he was declared the winner.

"oh, he completed something."

I should correct myself above. Dems have "gained" 29 seats, but one of them was Bernie Sanders's old seat. They have only gained 28 from the GOP.

Do you have anything that shows Democrat gains vs. lefitst-type ballot measures (like gay marriage)? It would be interesting to see if the Democratic gains actually represent a shifting of the population towards more progressive viewpoints or if they are just a rebuke of Bu$h.

i do know that the state immediately to my east (wisconsin, where some dem gains were made) voted yes to a gay marriage ban.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/02/us/po ... ref=slogin

January 2, 2007
As New Congress Nears, House Democrats Could Be Headed for Own Divide
By CARL HULSE

WASHINGTON, Jan. 1 — Representative John D. Dingell, a Michigan Democrat who with more than 50 years’ tenure is the senior member of the House, is not so sure about the idea of creating an independent group to enforce ethics rules.

But Gabrielle Giffords, a brand-new House Democrat from Arizona, considers it a no-brainer. Of the longstanding approach in which lawmakers are seated on the ethics committee to police their peers, Representative-elect Giffords said, “It is like having the fox guard the henhouse.”

Those divergent outlooks over how best to fulfill the Democratic promise to clean up the House are just one illustration of a friction that could develop in the new Congress as the party takes control after 12 years in exile. While most attention will be focused on the divide between Republicans and Democrats, members of the new majority have their own differing perspectives, corresponding largely to length of service, that could ultimately prove more crucial to their success or failure.

Of 233 Democrats who will be sworn in on Thursday, 147 — 63 percent — have been elected since Republicans won control of the House in 1994, and have never served in the majority. Those whose service predates the 1994 revolution, on the other hand, number only 86, or 37 percent. But it is this core of senior Democrats, Mr. Dingell among them, who will lead 20 of the 21 major committees and so exercise concentrated legislative power.

The differences in tenure tend to manifest themselves geographically as well. The makeup of the senior membership has a more urban flavor, while those more recently elected tend to come from the suburbs and exurbs. These newer members have faced tougher electoral opposition than their older counterparts, who in many cases represent overwhelmingly safe Democratic districts; a majority of new chairmen have traditional liberal roots.

Lawmakers, senior aides and analysts say the institutional gulf is not necessarily problematic and could even prove beneficial if Democratic leaders are able to harness the experience and skill of the chairmen to the enthusiasm and drive for reform exhibited by the newcomers.

But they worry that it could become a distraction if the “old bulls,” as they are sometimes called, believe that less seasoned lawmakers are demanding too much too fast or if the newer members see the veterans as representative of Congressional inertia.

“The guys who have been there for a while and built up seniority saw an abuse of the system, so they know firsthand why it has to change,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, who will be chairman of the Democratic caucus. “The new members ran on an agenda of why it has to be changed.

“If managed correctly, you have the experience and energy to make changes. If not managed correctly, it has the potential to be a fault line.”

Leading House Democrats say the long-tenured members and those sent to Congress in recent elections broadly agree on a desire to move ahead on social programs, ethics, energy, national security and fiscal responsibility. The differences, they say, are subtler. Do issues studied in the previous Congress, for instance, need a full further examination in committee, in deference to the new chairmen? Is there need for a separate commission to scrutinize war contracting, or should this too be the province of the committees?

In any event, it is clear that the lower classmen, particularly the large and celebrated group of 30 freshmen, want to move quickly.

“The new class coming in and some of the other newer members are absolutely committed to delivering on the agenda we talked about during the election,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who will lead the House Democratic campaign effort for 2008. “Now that we are in power, we want to make sure that we are changing direction in Washington, and that means following through not just on the big print but the fine print, a break with business as usual.”

Representative-elect Ed Perlmutter, Democrat of Colorado, agreed.

“I don’t think the chairs are not looking to be aggressive,” Mr. Perlmutter said, “but I do see in this freshman class a real desire to make changes and move things along quickly, because I think that was the direction we were given by our voters.”

Senior Democrats say that as the lawmakers who endured minority status for so long, they are the ones most painfully aware of a need for new direction. Their stake in holding on to a majority, they say, means protecting and advancing the careers of new lawmakers, who in many cases were elected with fund-raising and other help from senior Democrats.

“It is not like we are just now meeting for the first time,” said Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, who will be chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and can tick off the names of junior committee members he has worked with, as well as several freshmen he personally supported. “We all campaigned for these guys.”

Mr. Dingell said an urge to remake the House was hardly anything new.

“This is a normal phenomenon which occurs in this place every two years,” he said, “and I have seen no class come in that could be described as different. We all come here just dying to do something. But the smart ones of us know how to get it done by working within the system. I have no fears they are out to burn the place down.”

But Norman Ornstein, a longtime Congressional observer at the American Enterprise Institute, said he saw competing drives among members of the new majority.

“You have a significant number of Democrats who think the major change is that the whip is now in their hands and it is the Republicans taking the lash,” Mr. Ornstein said. “A number of others want to keep the spigots running, but just into their own pockets. Those who genuinely want to change the House — the way it operates, the culture of Washington — have their work cut out for them.”

The Democrats’ leader, Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the incoming speaker, has been in the House since 1987 but has never been chairwoman of a committee, and so in some respects her role may be that of an outsider free to pursue transformation. In one of her first tests, however, some seven weeks ago, many of those headed for chairmanships opposed her push to install Representative John P. Murtha of Pennsylvania as majority leader. Instead, they backed Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, at least partly because they saw him as a check on Mrs. Pelosi’s power. Mr. Hoyer went on to win.

Mrs. Pelosi has told allies that while she respects the authority of the new chairmen, she will not allow them to dominate the party agenda or stall legislative initiatives that have broad support. And she has already indicated that she does not intend to send the party’s early legislative initiatives back through the committee process, but will instead bring a minimum-wage increase and energy and health bills, among others, straight to the floor.

Democrats senior and junior say they are watching to see whether their ideals merge or collide. But they view party differences as just another factor they will have to take into account as they assume control.

“I think people understand it is a little bit of a bump and we have to deal with it,” Mr. Frank said.

Michael Arcuri, a moderate Democrat from upstate New York who won a Republican-held seat in November, said the combination of exuberance and experience should prove an advantage for the party.

“If we strike the balance between the two,” Mr. Arcuri said, “we are going to accomplish some pretty incredible things.”