http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... noil28.xml


Iran 'facing disaster' over collapsing fuel exports

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:21pm GMT 27/12/2006

Iran's oil exports are plummeting at 10pc a year on lack of investment and could be exhausted within a decade, depriving the world economy of its second-biggest source of crude supplies.

A report by the US National Academy of Sciences said rickety infrastructure dating back to the era of the Shah had crippled output, while local fuel use was rising at 6pc a year.

Iran's Arak heavy-water reactor project site
The Arak heavy-water reactor project site. Aging oil infrastructure means Iran could need nuclear power as badly as it claims

"Their domestic demand is growing at the highest rate of any country in the world," said Prof Roger Stern, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore.

"They need to invest $2.5bn (£1.28bn) a year just to stand still and they're not doing it because it's politically easier to spend the money on social welfare and the army than to wait four to six years for a return on investment," he said.

"They've been running down the industry like this for 20 years."

Prof Stern said Teheran faces impending disaster since it relies on oil revenues for 70pc of its budget.
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"They cannot afford to carry out their threats to shut off oil supplies," he said. "There is no oil weapon, it's just a bluff."

Iran produces 3.76m barrels of oil a day, 4.5pc of world supply. It needs $50bn of fresh investment over the next decade to rejuvenate the sector but has instead frightened away foreign oil companies.

The report said Iran "could need nuclear power as badly as it claims," speculating that economic motives may be mixed up with the drive for nuclear weapons.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed to press ahead with uranium enrichment, ignoring a UN deadline to halt the programme or face sanctions.

"This resolution will not harm Iran and those who backed it will soon regret their superficial act. We will celebrate our atomic achievements in February," he said.

laugh all you like i have long said Iran are getting ready for nuclear war.Their leader is a mad man he has hitler like thoughts he is led by the devil. He believes it is his role to destroy Israel before the return of his god he bekieves this will happen before the next US election.

i will continue to say Iran will push at Germany one to many times & germany asre going to desolute Iran & its islam allies their going to make a mess of the middle east & keep going.
Jesus said if he did not come back their wouldnt be a soul allive.
You either believe him or you dont.

Someone please forward this to Hugo Chavez before the people of Venezuela face the same fate.

As a matter of fact, the lack of investments in infra-structure is causing a lot of problems in Venezuela too. Its ironic that Brazil faces a totally different situation, where our oil is hard to get, so we develop a lot of good technologies. Easy comes, easy goes i guess

Brazil has been smart not to over nationalize investments by foreign companies, unlike Venezuala and Iran. As much as I'd love to see the governments of Iran and Venezuala fall, their people do not deserve the suffering that would come from it.

Don't worry the Kennedy's will keep them up to date.......... not sure if you got to witness the Kennedy support Citgo / Chavez / terrorist (half kidding) org.................. great commercial