AHHHHH YES! It is Februaray 16th and the Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us! Pitchers and Catchers have reported to Spring Training (for a number of clubs) and entire teams will be reporting shortly. My favorite team, the Minnesota Twins, season opener is on April 2nd at the Metrodome. And by the way, it is on National TV. (I guess that is the respect a team gets when they can show off the first American League Catcher to win a batting title since before WWI, the reigning AL MVP, the current AL Cy Young award winner, and a six time gold glove winner in Centerfield.) That is just 45 days away! I could not be happier!

In celebration of this glorious day, I have decided to give you a fan's look at his favorite team. Some of the following may be well thought out and clearly stated...and some won't. That is just the way it's gonna be. So deal with it.



I think that this team has a chance to do very well again this season, and I am as excited as hell! The only weakness I see at this point is a thin starting rotation...

STARTING PITCHING

Johan Santana will dominate the same way he always has at the top of the rotation. Expect another Cy Young type season with 18 to 22 wins. The retiremant of Brad Radke and the loss of rookie phenom Francisco Liriano for the season due to Tommy John surgury, hurt the rotation's depth a lot. The Twins are going to need Boof Bonser to pitch the way he did down the stretch of the 2006 season when he was 4-1 in September with a 2.63 ERA. Expecting consistant excellance like this from Bonser is silly, but I do think he can win 13 to 15 games and keep his ERA between 3.75 and 4.15. The Twins would take this kind of production in a heart beat.

Minnesota's number three starter a year ago was Carlos Silva. Silva, a sinker ball pitcher, struggled with his control all year and surrendered an AL leading 38 Home Runs, on his way to a 5.94 ERA. Obviously, this is unexceptable. In a somewhat suprising move, the Twins decided to give Silva another year to right the ship when they picked up a club option on his contract following the 2006 season. The team hopes that Silva can find the form of his '04 and '05 campaigns when he went 14-8 (4.21 ERA) and 9-8 (3.44 ERA) respectively. I think Silva gets the command of his sinker back and has a much better season in '07. Look for him to be slightly above .500, and win 11 to 13 games with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.65.

The Twins aquired free agent right hander Ramon Ortiz in January to fill the 4th spot in the rotation. The problem here is that Ortiz's ERA has been over 5.20 in three of his last four seasons. Ortiz had his best year in 2002, going 15-9 with a 3.77 ERA for the Anaheim Angels. He has been in steady decline ever since. The team will be looking to pitching coach Rick Anderson for some answers on how to straighten out Ortiz's once promising career. Another even more questionable off season aquisition the Twins made was signing troubled free agent Sidney Ponson. After dealing with many off field issues and a very slumping career, the Twins signed Ponson to a Minor League contract and will give him a shot at making the club out of spring training. Ponson, who has been over weight and out of shape, will have a lot to prove to have any shot at making the team. My best guess is that he will be sitting at home when the season begins.

This leaves the last spot in the rotation up for grabs between three young starters. Scott Baker, Matt Garza, and Glen Perkins. Baker got extended time with the club in 2006 when regulars in the rotation were injured. He showed a few signs of promise but largely stuggled in multiple stints in the rotation. He finished the season 5-8 with a 6.37 ERA. I believe that Baker is the least likely of the three to make the club out of Spring Training. I believe that Matt Garza is the player the Twins would love to have in the rotation when the season begins. Garza has spent two months at the big league level. He has a plus fastball and a devistating breaking ball. The Twins just hope the valuable experience that Garza had pitching down the stretch last year, traslates into a more relaxed and comfortable approach on the mound in 2007. He has the stuff to be a star in this league and Minnesota hopes that this season will be the beginning of great things to come. The dark horse in this race is rookie south paw Glen Perkins. Perkins saw very limited action in the 2006 season, but when he got a chance, he pitched very well. So well in fact, he was added to the post season roster after appearing in just 4 games all season. It is my best guess that Perkins will make the team this spring as a long reliever/spot starter. If Garza (or any of the other starters) struggles into May or June, look for Perkins to assume the spot in the rotation.


This is how I grade out the starters (1-10 scale. 10 being the best.):

Johan Santana...10
Boof Bonser...7
Carlos Silva...5.5
Ramon Ortiz...5.5
Sidney Ponson...N/R
Scott Baker...4.5
Matt Garza...6.5
Glen Perkins...5.5

STARTING PITCHING GRADE...6.5



BULLPEN


The Twins will be sporting an excellent bullpen yet again in 2007. After a fantastic 2006 season that saw closer Joe Nathan continue his league dominance going 7-0 with 36 Saves and a 1.58 ERA while striking out over 12.5 men per nine innings, it is hard to argue that there is a better closer in the game. This is not a flash in the pan year for Nathan either. Over the last three seasons he has saved 123 games in 133 opertunities, while striking out 11.9 batters per nine innings. Even more amazingly, Nathan's '07 WHIP (Walks + Hits per 9 Innings) was an astounding 0.79. Expect Nathan to have another fantastic year closing out games for the Twins. You can pencil in another 40 save year without hesitation.

Another highly productive Twin is set-up man Juan Rincon. Rincon has been incredibly consistant and extreemly reliable over the last three seasons. Leading the team in Holds and boasting an ERA under 2.95 each year. Jesse Crain had a dissapointing year in 2006. His ERA jumped 0.81 runs and, for the first time in his career, his hits allowed was higher then his innings pitched. That all being said, Crain was still an above average reliever and may present the Twins with some interesting options come the MLB trade deadline. If the starting pitching is struggling or there is a weak spot in the line up, the Twins may be able to trade Crain (in a package deal) for a productive starter or bat. Weather he stays or eventually goes, Crain may be a key player for the Twins this season.

Dennys Reyes may have been baseball's most under rated reliever in 2006. Reyes set career bests in a number of categories. He had a career high 5 wins, career best 5 earned runs allowed (min. 10 innings), career best 16 Holds, and the most amazing stat of all: 0.89 ERA. Simply put, Reyes became one of the elite middle relievers in the league. Long reliever Matt Guerrier had a very productive year eating innings. A very unsung member of this excellent bullpen, Guerrier pitched to an ERA of 3.36 over 70 innings. Often filling in in games that were out of reach, Guerrier worked his way into pitching more meaningful innings late in the season, and even making a spot start. It is not likely, but possible, that Guerrier could compete for the 5th spot in the starting rotation in 2007.

The player that may allow Jesse Crain to become expendable in '07 is Pat Neshek. Neshek was called up mid-way through the 2006 season. Using his very unorthodox, but highly effective, side arm delivery, Neshek cemented his place in the Twins bullpen. Often used against opponets best right handed hitters, he was able to compile a 4-2 record with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. These impressive stats plus Neshek's ability to pitch on back to back days has opened up the possibility of moving Crain during the season.


This is how I grade out the Bullpen:

Joe Nathan...9.5
Juan Rincon...8
Jesse Crain...7
Dennys Reyes...8.5
Matt Guerrier...6.5
Pat Neshek...7

BULLPEN GRADE...8



DEFENSE

This is probobly the most under rated part of the game. DEFENSE. It has been said a thousand times that pitching and defense wins championships, but somehow, defense still gets forgotten by most people when they consider how successful a team could be. I will not forget or skip over the defense. And thankfully, the Twins haven't forgotten either. Minnesota has one of the better defensive teams in the American League.

The most important defensive positions on the field are up the middle of the diamond. Catcher, Second Base, Short Stop and Center Field. Led by perennial Gold Glove center fielder Torii Hunter, the Twins have set the standerd for defensive excellence in the AL over the last four to five seasons. Staying strong up the middle the Twins have defensive excellence at second base in former Gold Glover Luis Castillo. Castillo makes all the routine plays and from time to time can still show the range and agility to make a highlight real play. Behind the plate the Twins have a future Gold Glover (possibly in 2007)in Joe Mauer. Mauer made just 4 errors in over 900 chances behind the plate. That led to a fielding percentage of .996, the best of his young career. Other then the fact that Mauer rarely makes errors, he has a laser arm behind the plate. He has thrown out exactly 40% of potential base stealers over his three year career. In 99 games short stop Jason Bartlett, a first year player, made 13 errors and had a fielding percentage of 97.1% in 2006. Bartlett is an average fielder with a good bat. The Twins just hope that he can raise his fielding percentage over the next year, this should come with experience. Bartlett showed improvement through the '06 season and the Twins have high expectations for 2007.

Rounding out the infield the Twins have Justin Morneau, and Nick Punto. Morneau has become a very reliable first baseman. A year or two ago Morneau would make bad errors on plays that seemed easy to the naked eye. Over the 2006 season the AL MVP worked tirelessly on his defense to improve from a liability at first, to the point of an above average defender at first base. Minnesota looks for even more improvement in 2007. Nick Punto is an under rated defender. He has the skills to play multiple positions. In 2006 he played thierd base, short stop, second base, and center field. And he played exceptionally well at each position. If new aquisition Jeff Cirillo assumes the starting role at third base, the Twins will have a very valuable utility man in Punto.

Filling out the outfield, Minnesota has Rondell White and Michael Cuddyer. White is an absolut liability. He has an average glove (at best), below average range, and a dismal throwing arm. Minnesota will rely on Hunter's range to cover for White's shortcomings on many occasions. Cuddyer is an average defender with one of the best throwing arms in the American League. He has the ability to gun down a slow runner at first on a solid single, or cut down a runner trying to take an extra base at any time. At times, his arm can make up for the lack of natural instincts in right field.


This is how I grade the defense:

Joe Mauer...9
Justin Morneau...6.5
Luis Castillo...8
Nick Punto...8
Jason Bartlett...7
Rondell White...5
Torii Hunter...9.5
Michael Cuddyer...7.5

DEFENSE GRADE...7.5


OFFENSE

The Minnesota Twins have risen in the ranks of MLB's offensive categories over the last full season. Just as recently as the 2004 or 2005 season, the Twins were one of the worst run producing teams in the league. With the emergence of batting champion Joe Mauer, AL MVP Justin Morneau, and the career years of Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter, the Twins finally have a legit core of players that can do a lot of damage with the bat. With consistant table setters with speed at the top and bottom of the lineup, the Twins may have one of the most balanced and best overall lineups in the AL.

Joe Mauer had a remarkable 2006 season. The 23 year old catcher led the American League in hitting at .347. He was the first catcher ever to accomplish that feet. Mauer also finished 3rd in the AL in On Base Percentage, and was a first time All Star. With limitless potential, look for him to improve on his power numbers in 2007, while contending for another batting title.

AL MVP Justin Morneau had one of the best over all offensive seasons by any Twin ever. He hit .321 while blasting 34 Home Runs and drove in al AL second best 130 runs. After a very frusterating and injury plagued 2005 season, Morneau solidified himself as one of the best sluggers in the game. Morneau broke a 19 year run of futility for the Twins when he became the first Twin to pass the 30 Home Run total since Kent Hrbek, Gary Geitti and Tom Brunanski all did in 1987. Harman Killebrew is the only Twin to ever drive in more runs in a season then Morneau did in '07. Look for Justin to do more of the same this year. The batting average may be more in the .280 to .300 range but the power numbers should be very similar.

Starting right fielder Michael Cuddyer blew away expectations and had a career year in 2007. The biggest difference for Cuddyer in '06 was stability that he was granted when he was allowed to be the every day right fielder. In previous seasons, Cuddyer had been asked to play multiple positions, never really knowing what to expect from day to day. In '06 he played 142 of his 150 games in right field. This allowed Cuddyer to settle into a routine that he thrived in. He doubled his previous career best in Home Runs to 24 and had 109 RBI (good for 12th in the AL). Another big key to his success is being able to bat between Mauer and Morneau in the line up. Look for another out standing season from Cuddyer with a similar home run total and 90-100 Runs batted in.

Torii Hunter had an interesting and productive 2006. While struggling with nagging injuries throughout much of the season, Hunter struggled to a very avarage first two thirds of the season. Then came August and September and Hunter was a whole different player. He mashed 15 home runs and had 43 RBI and was a major reason the Twins made their stunning run to a division championship. Torii set a career high with 31 Homers and drove in his second best total of 98 runs. Hunter, although frusterating at times with plate discipline issues, has been pretty consistant at the plate over his career. He has hit between 23 and 31 homers in five of his last six seasons, and driven in between 92 and 102 runs in four of those seasons. The bottom line is that Hunter is who he is: an incredibly streaky hitter that can carry a team when he is hot or go for a week or two with hardly a hit mixed in. Projected 2007 numbers are .270/25/90.

At the top of the line up the Twins have very little power, but what they lack in power numbers, they make up for with speed. Luis Castillo and Nick Punto (nick named the Pirhanas by White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen) set the table with on base percentages over .350 and 40 plus stolen bases between the two. Both players switch hit, causing matchup problems for opponents. Both are excellent bunters and are willing to do whatever it takes to prolong at bats and get on base for the more powerful bats in the middle of the order.

First year starter at short stop Jason Bartlett did, at the bottom of the order, many of the same things that Castillo and Punto did at the top of the order. The third member of the "Pirhanas", Bartlett hit .309 with limited power in 99 games last season. Bartlett is a natural hitter with good hands and balance at the plate. He should continue to improve with experience. He should always be around a .300 hitter, with five to ten home runs in a full season.

The 7th and 8th spots in the line up are where the Twins have question marks. Left fielder Rondell White had a dreadful 2006 season. White hit just .246 with 7 home runs and 38 RBI's. Even more starteling was his minute .276 on base percentage. White was signed to be Minnesota's DH prior to the '06 season but he never was able to become comfortable with the position. Late in the season he was inserted into left field and things took a dramatic turn for the better. In September, White hit .351 with 3 homers. The Twins will start White in left in '07 and hope for good results. If things go well he could hit around .270 with about 15 home runs and 70 RBI's. Minnesota would be very pleased with this kind of production.

The DH role will be Jason Kubel's to lose. Kubel is a very talented left handed bat that has had the misfortune of dealing with major knee related injuries over the last couple of seasons. If healthy Kubel could be a .300 hitter with mid level power (15-20 home run range). The problem here is that he hasn't been healthy in over two full seasons. If Kubel is unable to contribute at a high level, this may be the spot where the Twins have to trade Jesse Crain to get a steady bat. Sadly, I think Kubel's knees may be a career long issue, and I see a trade scenerio as the most likely remedy here.


This is how I grade the Offense:

Joe Mauer...9
Justin Morneau...9.5
Michael Cuddyer...8
Torii Hunter...8
Luis Castillo...7.5
Nick Punto...6.5
Jason Bartlett...7
Rondell White...5
Jason Kubel...4.5

OFFENSE GRADE...7.5


RESERVES

The Twins have a middle of the road bench this year. Having hardly and power is the main weekness. Backup catcher Mike Redmond is one of the best reserve backstops in the league. An above average defender, he hasn't comitted an error since joining the Twins prior to the 2005 season. Redmond also has a strong arm behind the plate. He has thrown out 41% of potential base stealers over the last two years. The biggest asset that Redmond brings off the bench is his bat. He did his best Joe Mauer immitation batting .341 in 47 games in '07. This is no fluke year either. Redmond hit .311 in 45 games in 2005, and has hit over .300 in six of his nine seasons in the Major Leagues.

The Twins signed free agent infielder Jeff Cirillo. Cirillo is expected to contend for the starting spot at third base in 2007. Last year with Milwaukee, Cirillo hit .319 in 112 games. Cirillo is capable of playing all four infield positions and will be a valuable asset of the bench.

Jason Tyner and [url=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7061[Lew Ford[/url] round out the bench. Tyner made a large impact while filling in for the often injured (and departed) Shannon Stewert in 2006. Tyner hit .312 in 62 games and played mistake free defense, even flashing some "web gems" from time to time. With the ability to play all three outfield positions well, Tyner's roster spot seems secure. Reserve corner outfielder Lew Ford, on the other hand, has a lot to prove going into '07. Ford struggled throughout 2006, and spent significant time on the disabled list. With capable players in AAA waiting for a shot at the big leagues, Ford will need to step up his play to keep his roster spot.


This is how I grade the Reserves:

Mike Redmond...8
Jeff Cirillo...6
Jason Tyner...6.5
Lew Ford...4

RESERVES GRADE...6


OVER ALL TEAM GRADE...7.10


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PROJECTED 2007 ROSTER

BATTING ORDER

2B Luis Castillo
3B Nick Punto
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
CF Torii Hunter
LF Rondell White
DH Jason Kubel
SS Jason Bartlett

PITCHING ROTATION

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Carlos Silva
RHP Ramon Ortiz
RHP Matt Garza

BULLPEN

CL Joe Nathan
SU Juan Rincon
MR Jesse Crain
MR Pat Neshek
MR Dennys Reyes
LR Matt Guerrier
LR Glen Perkins

RESERVES

C Mike Redmond
IF Jeff Cirillo
OF Jason Tyner
OF Lew Ford


NOTABLE MINOR LEAGUERS

IF Loius Rodriguez
IF Alexi Castilla
SP Scott Baker
SP J.D. Durban
C Chris Heintz
1B Matthew LeCroy
SP Dave Gassner
SP Kevin Slowey
1B/3B Terry Tiffee

The rest of my team analysis and grades will be added ASAP.

and when can we expect your power rankings?

George Brett>Kirby Puckett

Mark Gubicza>Prince

sweet music

Bullpen added.

when the hell does the new stadium open

Defense added.

09'ish i think

trivia time:

1987 world series, who started game 6? who won it?

can anyone answer without using the interweb to search for the answer?

Les Straker?

that is the correct starting pitcher.
but he got a ND...

Offense Added.

Reserves added. Full Roster added. Lineups added. Pitching Rotation, Bullpen and Bench added. Notable Minor Leaguers added.

PROJECT COMPLETED!!!

The Twins will finish behind Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago. They can't make up for the blows to the rotation and they're in the toughest division in baseball. The bottom half of their lineup is brutal.

Thats the exact same kind of stuff people were saying a year ago.

A year ago they had amazing pitching.

No it's not.