I'm gonna say by the end of 2008.

Define obsolete. People still release material on Vinyl and VHS. If those formats are not considered obsolete, then I give the DVD format another 10 years.
If you mean obsolete as in another format will become more popular and in more wide use than DVD, I think 3-4 years is a good estimate. People have massive DVD collections, and they're not going to abandon it overnight and switch to HD or whatever higher format will take it over. The vast majority of people right now cannot even take advantage of the benefits of something like HD anyway. The percentage of the populace who have HD TV's, HD players and HD discs, (or throw in whatever next gen technology) is extremely minute right now. To say the majority will have switched by the end of '08 I think is a little premature.

I think you can say with confidence that companies are not going to put much time and money into releasing something in standard definition anymore. The next greatest thing is usually the thing that sells the most. End of '08 is premature, but I wouldn't say 4 years. Everyone I know that has access to HD programming absolutely refuses to watch anything in standard definition. Things like that should be a sign...

why does something better have to be the norm right away? i'll never understand that. vinyl > tapes > cd's made sense, because all you use is one sense (hearing) so you'd like for it to be as crystal clear as possible. though i also don't understand people only wanting to listen to SACD quality either.

with movies i feel it's different.there are more than enough people who don't care to be able to count the how many grains of sand the beach consists of, they just want to be entertained. so why not just release both, one for the average movie watcher, and one for the anal retentive one

For the companies, it's not a matter of what format people want, it's a matter of what is making them money, and thus far, the vast majority of people still want their standard DVD's. That will slowly change of course as time goes on. That's why I say for 3-4 years still, standard def will still be the biggest player and companies will gladly invest in it since they make plenty of money from it. Any company right now who decides to not put much time and money into standard def releases will basically be shooting themselves in the foot...maybe even both feet.



Do you have something to back this up? From my experience, the next best thing never sells the most, ever. Pretty much by nature in the fact that it's the "next greatest thing" implies that it's something most people will invest in down the road and not right now. When a new computer processor comes out, you dont go right out and get the best fastest one on the market. You always buy a few notches down, since the cost usually way inflated for the latest and greatest. That's exactly where HD formats stand right now. As a consumer, you've got to invest at least $300 in a semi decent, no frills HD DVD player, compared to $20 you can find for a cheap ass standard DVD player. Also, $12 for a standard DVD compared to $25-$35 for HD discs doesnt bode well for sales. It's always a slow process of constant transition. Over the next 3-4 yeats, I think HD DVD format will take over as the format of choice. Actually at the moment, I think that HDTV will have a much more immediate impact than the DVD market.



I've watched HD programming and DVD's. It's great. I have a 50 inch HD plasma TV to watch that shit on to. I wouldnt say remotely that I "refuse" to watch standard def. To me that's preposterous. I like HD programming, but it's by no means any kind of viewing requirement.

When the price comes down to where dvd's are currently we will see a larger user base.

Then again, both hd dvd and bluray are backwards compatible with dvd's so they may never truly die.

I'm doubtful that discs will be obsolete in the near future. Data capacity per disc and encoding, is what I think we'll see change at break neck pace.

Well there's definitely going to be a point in a few years when DVD Players won't be sold anymore. Since the players of the new generation formats support the DVD type, there's going to be a point where it won't make any sense to just get a DVD player.

I say give it another 5 years. The Blu Ray & HD-DVD discs are out & price dropping day by day. So many sweet deals & the price of the discs that go on sale are getting cheaper & cheaper (I LOVE IT). Plus, it's about time the recordable Double Layer dvdr's are dropping in price. For year's now, those have been expensive to buy. All stores today are selling DVD's by the crates. They are not going anywhere's for the next few years. Plus .. the live music b+p'ing / trading / torrenting community .. we are still on the DVD format style. I say give it like 2 more year's .. once the HD-DVD & Blu-Ray recordable burners go down in price .. that will be the next move in the trading circle. I'll be ready.

I wonder, once DVDs are obsolete, if Blu Ray and HD-DVD will be the next VHS and Beta.

If so, which will be the next Beta?

i'm not switching to blue ray or HDVD any time soon, and i really like movies

I'd like to hang with DVDs long enough to leapfrog HD-DVD & BR to some superior third format.