florida and iowa turn blue, nevada is now tied up. this is awesome, just hours ago bush was up by 20some odd electors.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.stanford.edu/group/predict2004/ (hasn't accounted for the newest polls yet)

I wonder what's making people change their minds? Bush's flip flop on civil unions? Osama video? Bush flipping the camera off video? Hm

I wouldn't count your chickens until after November 2nd.

And it may take even longer, who knows!?

I have been following the electoral-vote site for several months, but I've come to realize its limitations. It uses the very latest polls, and a vast majority of the time, the latest poll is Zogby. He comes out every day, and his polls just aren't the great.

I'm not just saying it because he's a Democrat -- some of his polls seem stupidly skewed TOWARD Bush sometimes.

His polls just seem to swing wildly ... in at least two of the battleground states, he had like a 12-point swing in one week. that just looks fishy.

I guess what I'm saying is, I wouldn't go throwing a party one way or another based on the electoral vote site. It is interesting, but it isn't the be all, end all.

jeff's right.

We are agreeing far to often jeff!

This morning's newspaper said that we were at 50% Bush and 44% Kerry. I hope that changes in favor of Kerry. This state voted for Bush last election, please don't make that same mistake twice!

again, I wouldn't take the word of any one poll, national or statewide.

If you have to take one as gospel, I would recommend Mason-Dixon (and not just because it generally has Bush up in a lot of places).

Mason-Dixon had a 90 percent success rate in the 2002 congressional and governor's races, and nailed 22 of 23 states in the 2000 presidential election.

on that note, I still say Kerry is on the tougher end of the electoral college math.

He's probably gonna have to take 2 out 3 between Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania AND 2 out 3 between Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

And Bush looks pretty solid in Florida and Iowa ... so Kerry may have to sweep the rest.

could it happen? sure. But Bush has a slightly easier path, I think.

but if you want to delve deeply into just one poll, there's a lot of good news for Bush in the latest CBS/NYTimes poll (of all places):



John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.

President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.

Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%

66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.

50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.

By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.

President Bush has a 49% job approval rating.

The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.

48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.

By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.

53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever.

52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.

62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.

57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.

53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.

31% say their families are better off than they were four years ago. 40% say about the same.

~reminds me of the old Homer Simpson line: "You can find a statistic to prove anything. 8 out of every 10 people knows that."

quoting the Simpsons.... that adds all kinds of weight to your argument.

wow. democrats really DO have no sense of humor ...

Heard on MSNBC an exit poll from Iowa shows Kerry was up by 11%

Polls really don't mean shit though:

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS ... king.poll/

Tracking poll: Bush holds on to advantage

October 27, 2000
Web posted at: 6:23 p.m. EDT (2223 GMT)

By CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll continues to give George W. Bush an advantage over Vice President Al Gore.

While not a prediction of the voters' choice in November, Friday's results show Bush garnering 52 percent of the vote and Gore drawing 39 percent. The survey of 851 likely voters was conducted October 24-26 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

A CNN/Time poll also released today gives Bush a 49 percent to 43 percent edge over Gore, which is statistically in agreement with today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll, given the polls' margin of sampling error.

ABC News and The Washington Post both have daily tracking polls today putting the race at 48 percent for Bush and 45 percent for Gore. The latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll has the contest at 45 percent for Gore and 43 percent for Bush.

CNN will be releasing the results of its tracking polls every day until the November 7 elections. The polls monitor public opinion of the presidential race over intervals of two to three days.


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 24-26

Likely Voters' Choice for President

Bush 52%

Gore 39

Nader 4

Buchanan 1

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

---------------------

From the 2000 election

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicsel ... ll-x_x.htm





No, we don't.

Hahah, USAToday has some good comics:

[quote="glorified_version"]Heard on MSNBC an exit poll from Iowa shows Kerry was up by 11%

Polls really don't mean shit though:

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS ... king.poll/

Yeah, they really don't. but fyi, the "poll" that gives that 11 percent number has a very small sample size. That 11-percent equates to literally 24 votes.

I wouldn't pay any attention to that, nor the one that had Bush up nationally among early voters by about the same margin.

those aren't exactly scientific.

I agree, the exit polls are a little too early to tell at this stage

OK then ... don't.

A 90% rate how, within the margin of error or in calling the elections?

Since like 95% of the time incumbents win in congressional elections, who needs a poll to tell us that?

And Mason-Dixon's party breakdowns are almost always well right of what the turnout figures were in 2000, so there goes that pitch.

Slate has Kerry up 299-239, Kerry has led for a few days now. The latest polls have been huge for Kerry in the battlegrounds. He looks better in Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico than he has in a long time. This isn't people changing their minds I don't think, it's undecideds swinging to Kerry. If I had to bet, I would say Kerry takes at least 2 of 3 of Penn, Fl, and Ohio, and also takes 2 of 3 from Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota.

http://www.slate.com/id/2108751/

Not a democrat. try again please.

didn't know that about the zogby..thanks

I tend to disagree, but hey, it's America. I think it probably depends on where we get our spin from. Slate is a pretty left-leaning source ... my sources are probably the opposite.