Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:47 am Posts: 46000 Location: Reasonville
This season's most overrated players
Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 5 days ago
The following is an exercise in craven subjectivity.
We're talking overrated and underrated. Any time these two words are introduced into the discussion, you're taking into account individual perceptions, however skewed and adulterated those might be.
Nevertheless, we're at a point in the season in which performances are meaningful from a sample size standpoint, and we can also, with reasonable accuracy, read the hype meters around the league. Who's getting too much ink? Who's owed some bandwidth? These are the overrated and underrated performers for the season in our midst. And this time, it's the players whose numbers don't rise to the level of the column inches.
If they were a band, they'd be Coldplay. Yep, it's the top 10 most overrated players for 2005 ...
1. Scott Podsednik, LF, White Sox
Scott Podesdnik has all the speed in the world, but the left fielder hasn't hit a single home run this season. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)
To hear many in the media tell it, Podsednik is the catalyst for the best team in the American League. To hear the numbers tell it, Podsednik is a below-average performer by left-fielder standards. He has his merits — good defense, solid on-base skills, speed on the bases — but his failings are more critical. To wit, he can't hit for power. At all. Podsednik's .337 slugging percentage is appalling for a corner outfielder playing half his games in one of the best power parks around. A left fielder with no home runs this late in the season isn't doing his job, no matter how many bases he steals.
2. Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets
Beltran was overrated before his disappointing season in 2005. Beltran, of course, ramped up his market value with a hot stretch drive and stunning postseason with the Astros last year, but consider the preponderance of the evidence. He was a good player with admirable defensive skills, exceptional base-stealing abilities and a solid bat made to look better by a succession of hitter-friendly parks.
However, the Mets gave this good player "great player" money. A nagging hamstring injury and the run-suppressing environs of Shea have exacted a toll on Beltran this season. He's a better player than his 2005 numbers, but he's a substantially worse player than that $119 million contract.
3. Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers
Blalock has loads of ability, but his levels of offensive production are illusory. That's because Ameriquest Field is drastically inflating his numbers.
Consider his career batting line on the road: .241 AVG/.300 OBP/.401 SLG. Now contrast that with his work at home: .316 AVG/.386 OBP/.566 SLG. Until he learns to hit away from Arlington, Blalock won't be the All-Star he's passed off as.
4. Kevin Millar, 1B, Red Sox
Folksy and likeable? Sure. Idiot, Cowboy Up and all that stuff? Sure. Productive? Nope. This season, Millar is putting up a batting line of .270 AVG/.357 OBP/.367 SLG, which isn't adequate for a defensively challenged first baseman. He's had a couple of very good seasons in his career (both as a Marlin), but he's been unable to produce at all on the road in recent seasons (Fenway is a haven for right-handed batters). Regardless of clubhouse chops, he needs to be benched for road games and cut loose altogether after this season.
5. Victor Zambrano, SP, Mets
The Mets cut bait on Scott Kazmir, perhaps the best young lefty in the game, to get Zambrano, mostly because then new pitching Rick Peterson thought he could fix him. Zambrano has a career 4.40 ERA and is already 30 years old. At first glance you might think Zambrano has made nominal improvement, what with his 4.13 ERA. However, consider that Shea is a pitcher's park, run scoring is down this season, and Zambrano has out only 88 strikeouts against 66 walks. Kazmir is the better pitcher now, and he'll most assuredly be the better pitcher in years to come. A terrible, terrible trade for the Mets.
6. C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians
In some circles, Sabathia is regarded as an ace. He's not. In only one season has Sabathia worked at least 200 innings while maintaining an ERA better than the league average. This season, his ERA has risen to a career-worst 4.75. Sabathia's still only 25, but the time has come to realize his promise.
7. Zack Greinke, SP, Royals
Fits and starts for a pitcher this young are to be expected, but a 6.28 ERA? Greinke was once hailed as the best pitching prospect in baseball, but it's not likely he'll ever live up to those expectations. Why?
Greinke posts low strikeout rates in tandem with fly-ball tendencies. That's a dangerous mix. No matter how good a pitcher's command might be, if he's allowing a lot of balls in play and a lot of those balls are in the air ... well, that's bad. Press clippings aside, don't expect future greatness from Greinke.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Mariners
Ichiro is a cultural luminary, an important figure in baseball history and a thoroughly likeable and engaging athlete. He also hits for average, runs the bases well and plays an exceptional right field.
However, Ichiro lacks secondary hitting skills. That means he doesn't draw walks and doesn't hit for power.
Because of these deficiencies, he's a player who needs to hit .330 or higher to be effective. Some seasons, he does that, and some seasons he doesn't. When you consider all Ichiro signifies and his global popularity, he's worth the attention he gets. However, through the prism of on-field performance, he's not.
9. Sean Casey, 1B, Reds
Casey's had a handful of good seasons in his career, but he's horribly inconsistent and isn't worth the $7.8 million he's making this season. He's slugging only .440, which isn't impressive for a first baseman playing half his games in Cincinnati. Stat geeks generally overstate Casey's weaknesses, but he's overpaid and overvalued by the organization.
Considering the Reds' outfield/first base bottleneck, they badly need to pass on Casey's 2006 option. He's a useful player, but these days he's best deployed in a reserve/platoon role.
10. Ryan Klesko, LF, Padres
Bad defense? Yep. Bad defense no matter where you stick him? Yep. Hasn't hit for power since 2001? Yep.
Klesko still has good plate discipline, but he does little else to help his team. He was once an excellent player, but his time has passed.
This season's most underrated players
Dayn Perry / FOXSports.com
Posted: 5 days ago
After looking at baseball's most overrated players, it's time to look at those who aren't getting the attention they deserve — the 10 most underrated players in the game today ...
1. Brian Giles, OF, Padres
How underappreciated is Brian Giles? His career OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .956 is in the top 20 all-time for players with at least 5,000 career plate appearances. Why is he so underappreciated? For years he toiled in Pittsburgh on baseball's rural route, and now he is playing half his games in Petco Park, a brutal environment for hitters.
Giles has the best plate discipline in baseball this side of a healthy Barry Bonds, and his substantial power is masked by Petco. For instance, this season, he's hitting .327 AVG/.456 OBP/.562 on the road. If Giles had been given a regular job in the majors when he deserved one — instead of at age 28 — he'd be cobbling together a Hall of Fame career.
2. Jason Bay, LF, Pirates
Sure, Bay's the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, but he's still not getting the recognition he merits. He boasts a career batting line of .291 AVG/.380 OBP/.548 SLG, he runs the bases well, plays a slick left field and can even man center on occasion. This season, Bay ranks 10th in the NL in SLG and 10th in OBP. Not bad for a 22nd-round draft pick on his fourth organization.
3. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians
The best shortstop in baseball on a per-plate-appearance basis? Yep, it's Peralta. If his SLG of .541 holds up, it could be one of the top 20 ever by an AL shortstop. His minor-league dossier suggests he's over-performing, but there's no ignoring his excellence in 2005. If Peralta maintains this level of performance and continues playing strong defense, he's a legitimate MVP candidate this season.
4. Julio Lugo, SS, Devil Rays
Lugo isn't an elite ballplayer, but he's the quintessence of a quality major league shortstop — exceptional with the glove, above average with the bat. Why there hasn't been feverish trade interest in Lugo over the last couple of seasons is a mystery. For his career, Lugo is hitting .296 AVG/.358 OBP/.389 SLG, which is strong production for a shortstop who can flat-out pick it. It's easy to be overlooked when you're biding your time with the awful D-Rays, but it's about time Lugo got his due as one of the best shortstops in baseball not named Tejada or Jeter.
5. Travis Hafner, DH, Indians
Hafner's a DH, so he has no defensive value, but at the plate he rakes like few others. Stolen from the Rangers in exchange for Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz, Hafner has emerged as one of the best hitters in the AL. This season, Hafner ranks third in the AL in OBP and fourth in SLG, and he was just as good last season. He's the best hitter on the team that's taking the league by storm in the second half. There's simply no excuse for Shea Hillenbrand being named to this year's AL All-Star team over Hafner.
6. Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros
Oswalt's career numbers: 934.2 innings, 3.07 ERA, 802 strikeouts, 217 walks. That's a better career ERA than Roger Clemens', and that's a better career strikeout-to-walk ratio than Randy Johnson's. In terms of park- and league-adjusted ERA, Oswalt ranks in the top 10 all-time among hurlers with at least 900 career innings. This season, he's being overshadowed by teammates Clemens and Andy Pettitte, but few pitchers are as consistently excellent as Oswalt.
7. Ben Sheets, SP, Brewers
Sheets doesn't get the credit he deserves for helping put the Brewers on the path to the wild card this season (even before his likely season-ending injury). Last season, Sheets quietly put together one of the great seasons in recent memory. In fact, Sheets' 2004 strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.25 was the sixth-best mark since 1900. He's possessed of tremendous stuff and a staggering record of performance in recent seasons. Sheets will be the ace of what should be a strong line of Brewers teams over the next few seasons.
8. Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Astros
Ensberg is in the midst of a tremendous breakout season. Coming into 2005, Ensberg boasted a solid career batting line of .277 AVG/.352 OBP/.457 SLG.
However, erstwhile manager Jimy Williams was reluctant to grant him regular playing time. Since Phil Garner arrived, things have been different. Ensberg's rewarded that faith this season by hitting .281 AVG/.384 OBP/.569 SLG, which makes him the most productive third baseman in the NL. The Astros are in the throes of a pennant race, and Ensberg has carried the offense this season.
9. Vernon Wells, CF, Blue Jays
Wells blends outstanding raw power with exceptional defense at a key position. In 2003, Wells tallied 87 extra-base hits, which is the ninth-highest total ever by a center fielder. This year, he's on pace for another 70 extra-base knocks. A slow start in 2005 has dragged down Wells' numbers, but he's hitting .290 AVG/.320 OBP/.503 since the break. At age 26, he has even better days ahead.
10. Dan Wheeler, RP, Astros
In Wheeler's five major-league seasons before his current one, he had a 4.95 ERA. In 2005, however, he's worked 56.0 innings, struck out 58 and posted a 1.77 ERA. In fact, he's been a different pitcher since arriving in Houston in late August of 2004. Other Astros pitchers are getting more ink this season, but Wheeler has been the team's best reliever in '05. Yes, even better than Brad Lidge.
_________________ No matter how dark the storm gets overhead They say someone's watching from the calm at the edge What about us when we're down here in it? We gotta watch our backs
Post subject: Re: Overrated/Underrated MLB players
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:22 pm
Got Some
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:43 pm Posts: 2398
5. Victor Zambrano, SP, Mets
I can't believe Zambrano made the overrated list. Other than Mets officials trying to justify a horrible trade, I've never heard anyone say anything good about him.
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