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 Post subject: Hamas Wins Palestinian Election
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 3:35 pm 
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Officials: Hamas Wins Palestinian Election

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) - Hamas' top official told Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday the Islamic militant group is ready for a partnership after defeating the ruling Fatah Party in parliamentary elections - a shocking upset sure to throw Mideast peacemaking into turmoil.

Officials in both parties said Hamas appeared to have captured a large majority of seats in Wednesday's elections. The Central Election Commission said the vote count had not been completed and that it would make an official announcement Thursday evening.

Abbas' Fatah Party will decide later in the day whether to join a Hamas-led government or serve in the opposition, Palestinian Information Minister Nabil Shaath said.

Earlier, Fatah legislator Saeb Erekat said after a meeting with Abbas that the party has already decided to serve in the opposition. "Hamas will be asked to form the new government," Erekat said. "We in Fatah will not join them. We will be a loyal opposition and rebuild the party."

Abbas, who favors peace talks with Israel, has said he would resign if he could no longer pursue his agenda. Aides said he planned a major speech Thursday night.

Israel and the United States have said they would not deal with a government led by Hamas, which has carried out dozens of suicide bombings and which they consider a terrorist group.

Acknowledging the Hamas victory, Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia and his Cabinet ministers resigned Thursday - hours before official results were released.

"This is the choice of the people. It should be respected," Qureia said. "If it's true, then the president should ask Hamas to form a new government." The Cabinet remained in office in a caretaker capacity.

By law, Abbas must ask the largest party in the new parliament - presumably Hamas - to form the new government. Abbas was elected separately a year ago and remains president.

Hamas capitalized on widespread discontent with Fatah's corruption and ineffectiveness. Much of its campaign focused on internal Palestinian issues, while playing down the conflict with Israel.

Israeli officials declined comment on the outcome, but senior security officials gathered Thursday to discuss the results. Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert scheduled talks with senior officials later in the day.

Olmert said Wednesday, before Hamas claimed victory, that Israel cannot trust a Palestinian leadership in which the Islamic group has a role.

"Israel can't accept a situation in which Hamas, in its present form as a terror group calling for the destruction of Israel, will be part of the Palestinian Authority without disarming," Olmert said in a statement issued by his office.

Reactions to the Hamas victory streamed in from around the world. Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, according to news reports, called it a "very, very, very bad result." But Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European Union's external relations commissioner, said Hamas must be "ready to work for peace" with Israel if it joins the Palestinian government.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan congratulated the Palestinian people on the peaceful elections, which he views as an important step toward a Palestinian state.

President Bush told The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday the United States will not deal with Hamas until it renounces its position calling for the destruction of Israel.

Hamas said before the election it does not want to govern alone, and would prefer to bring Fatah into a coalition. Hamas officials said the group would declare its intentions after official results are announced.

Hamas' exiled supreme leader, Khaled Mashaal, called Abbas from Syria to discuss the results. "He stressed Hamas insists on a partnership with all the Palestinian factions, especially our brothers in Fatah," Hamas said on its Web site.

Before the election, Hamas had suggested it would be content as a junior partner in the government, thus avoiding a decision on its relationship with Israel. Throughout the campaign, leaders sent mixed signals, hinting they could be open to some sort of accommodation with Israel. Its apparent victory will now force it to take a clearer position on key issues, including whether to abandon its violent ideology.

Mushir al-Masri, a Hamas candidate who won election in the northern Gaza Strip, sent mixed signals about its plans. He said peace talks and recognition of Israel are "not on our agenda" but the group is ready for a partnership - presumably with Abbas.

Fatah's official position wasn't immediately clear. Officials appeared to be in shock, turning off their phones and avoiding reporters.

One defeated Fatah candidate, Nabil Amr, said he did not expect his party to accept a junior position in a Hamas-led government. "I don't think Fatah can participate in a lower position," said Amr.

The election marked the first time Hamas has contested a legislative vote, and leading the Cabinet could give it significant powers. The Cabinet holds wide control over security forces, finance and other government functions, though Abbas has retained power mainly through tradition and political leverage.

Abbas, in his role as leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, would still remain in charge of negotiations with Israel.

Palestinian election officials confirmed early Thursday that Hamas had won a large majority of the seats up for grabs in electoral districts in the West Bank and Gaza.

Half the seats were chosen on a national list and the other half by districts. While the national voting appeared to be close, election officials said Hamas had won a large majority in the district races. Hamas apparently took advantage of divisions in Fatah; the long-ruling party fielded multiple candidates in many districts, allowing the Islamic group to capitalize.

Initial exit polls had forecast a slight edge for Fatah, with Hamas coming in a strong second. The polls predicted that neither party would have a majority and would have to rely on smaller parties to form a coalition.

However, on Thursday morning, Hamas officials said the group had won up to 75 seats - giving it a solid majority in the 132-member parliament.

Officials in Fatah conceded that Hamas had won about 70 seats. They spoke on condition of anonymity because counting in some districts was continuing.

Palestinian pollsters were at a loss to explain the discrepancy between the exit polls. Many voters said they had been afraid to admit to pollsters they had supported Hamas, fearing retribution.

Palestinian legislator Hanan Ashrawi, who apparently was re-elected on a moderate platform, said the Hamas victory was a dramatic turning point. She said she is concerned the militants will now impose their fundamentalist social agenda and lead the Palestinians into international isolation.

She said Fatah's corruption, Israel's tough measures and international indifference to the plight of the Palestinians were to blame for Hamas' strong showing.

Washington miscalculated in pushing for the vote, as part of its pro-democracy campaign in the Arab world, she said. "The Americans insisted on having the election now, so they have to respect the results of the election, as we all do," she said.

Israel has repeatedly asked Abbas to force Hamas and other militant groups to disarm but Abbas has refused, warning such an act could cause civil war. Hamas has committed dozens of suicide bombings against Israel.

Turnout was heavy, with nearly 78 percent of 1.3 million eligible voters casting ballots. Polling stations were heavily guarded, and there were no reports of major violence.

International observers, including former President Carter, reported no major problems with fraud.



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I see Bush's point now. Democracy is a way to bring reform to the middle east.



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 3:46 pm 
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We have every reason to believe Hamas can achieve more on the peace front than Fattah. They've proven (legitimately or otherwise) to the Palestinian people that they won't tolerate bullying from the Israelis.

With the Palestinians behind them, they might be able to convince their own people that negotiations and peace are the way to go. And the Israelis will be under no illusions about what the consequences will be if they keep dicking the Palestinians. Equally, Hamas will have the legitimacy to tell their suicide bombers and violent factions to cease, because Israel won't tolerate violent tactics.

In other words... Hamas might actually prove to be legitimate representatives of the Palestinians, with actual support and actual ability to take tough decisions against its own peoples' wishes.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 4:35 pm 
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Reminds me of this line:

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"I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again -- democracy doesn’t work."

You make some interesting points, Sailesh, but I can't really get too optomistic about this yet.

Also, what does this mean for Israeli elections? Will they in turn elect a hawkish gov't?


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 4:43 pm 
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shades-go-down wrote:
We have every reason to believe Hamas can achieve more on the peace front than Fattah. They've proven (legitimately or otherwise) to the Palestinian people that they won't tolerate bullying from the Israelis.



Blowing up innocent people riding the bus and going to the grocery store doesn't seem like a reasonable way to achieve peace. This is a violent group, and they have never tried to hide that.

shades-go-down wrote:
With the Palestinians behind them, they might be able to convince their own people that negotiations and peace are the way to go. And the Israelis will be under no illusions about what the consequences will be if they keep dicking the Palestinians.



They've shown no desire for peaceful negotiations in the past few years. What makes you think that's their agenda now? This result makes me wonder if Palestinians are serious about peace in the first place.

Even without Hamas in power, I'm sure Israel is under no illusion about what this group is capable of. We've all seen some of the carnage.

shades-go-down wrote:
Equally, Hamas will have the legitimacy to tell their suicide bombers and violent factions to cease, because Israel won't tolerate violent tactics.


I agree with you that Hamas is more capable of ending the violence than other Palestinian groups, and your above statement could work. I just don't see it happening, and for now at least, I doubt this is their intention.

shades-go-down wrote:
In other words... Hamas might actually prove to be legitimate representatives of the Palestinians, with actual support and actual ability to take tough decisions against its own peoples' wishes.


If they're the legitimate representatives of their people, why would they have to make tough decisions against the will of these people?



Green Habit wrote:
Also, what does this mean for Israeli elections? Will they in turn elect a hawkish gov't?


I was thinking that too.


I think the whole world should be pretty nervous right now.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 4:58 pm 
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I think they will have to moderate themsleves a bit more now, they have no one else to blame when the usual shitstorm comes.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 5:28 pm 
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NEWS JUST IN:

Turkeys vote for Christmas

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 6:59 pm 
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shades-go-down wrote:
We have every reason to believe Hamas can achieve more on the peace front than Fattah. They've proven (legitimately or otherwise) to the Palestinian people that they won't tolerate bullying from the Israelis.

With the Palestinians behind them, they might be able to convince their own people that negotiations and peace are the way to go. And the Israelis will be under no illusions about what the consequences will be if they keep dicking the Palestinians. Equally, Hamas will have the legitimacy to tell their suicide bombers and violent factions to cease, because Israel won't tolerate violent tactics.

In other words... Hamas might actually prove to be legitimate representatives of the Palestinians, with actual support and actual ability to take tough decisions against its own peoples' wishes.


That, young fella, is the most optimistic post in the history of the internet.


It's been a while since I agreed with anything that Chuck Schumer said, but today he spoke the truth:
"Hamas is a terrorist organization, which means they believe it is their right to murder women, children and innocent civilians to achieve their goals. It is unrealistic, unwise and even immoral to ask Israel to sit down with a government that contains people who have such beliefs."

Of course his second point is moot, because Zahar has said that he doesn't recognize the peace process, that to him it doesn't exist. He has also stated repeatedly that Hamas will never recognize Israel.

This is a bad day for the world, I'm extremely dissappointed in the Palestinian people.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:10 pm 
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http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/01/26/ ... index.html

Quote:
On the Middle East, Bush expressed concern that Palestinian elections had given a majority to the radical party Hamas, which has called for the elimination of Israel, although he noted that democratic elections sometimes produce unwelcome results.


for once i agree with the prez. :P


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:38 pm 
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 9:38 pm 
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I'm not as pessimistic as many of you about this result. I think this will result in Hamas moderating, not in them causing an outright war. If they wanted war, they could do that outside the system. They gain nothing on that front by controlling a toothless government. What they gain is legitimacy, but that gain goes out the window if they turn to violence.

I think Bush's reaction today is just right. Democracy is good, Hamas should not be dealt with until they demonstrate that they are not pushing to destroy Israel.

Give it six months, then we'll be able to see more about the future.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 10:12 pm 
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punkdavid wrote:
I'm not as pessimistic as many of you about this result. I think this will result in Hamas moderating, not in them causing an outright war. If they wanted war, they could do that outside the system. They gain nothing on that front by controlling a toothless government. What they gain is legitimacy, but that gain goes out the window if they turn to violence.

I think Bush's reaction today is just right. Democracy is good, Hamas should not be dealt with until they demonstrate that they are not pushing to destroy Israel.

Give it six months, then we'll be able to see more about the future.

:roll: PD, this is the internet. You're supposed to speculate wildly.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 11:08 pm 
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punkdavid wrote:
I'm not as pessimistic as many of you about this result. I think this will result in Hamas moderating, not in them causing an outright war. If they wanted war, they could do that outside the system. They gain nothing on that front by controlling a toothless government. What they gain is legitimacy, but that gain goes out the window if they turn to violence.

I think Bush's reaction today is just right. Democracy is good, Hamas should not be dealt with until they demonstrate that they are not pushing to destroy Israel.

Give it six months, then we'll be able to see more about the future.


I think you're missing the point. As the good Senator Schumer said, should Israel (or anyone else for that matter) be expected to work with a group of murderers? Likewise Hamas has written off any kind of "peace process". Certainly, no peace is possible without the two sides working together.
"Outright war" is highly unlikely, a return to the endless cycle of violence and retribution is not so unlikely.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11009552/ :?

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2006 11:57 pm 
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Man in Black wrote:
punkdavid wrote:
I'm not as pessimistic as many of you about this result. I think this will result in Hamas moderating, not in them causing an outright war. If they wanted war, they could do that outside the system. They gain nothing on that front by controlling a toothless government. What they gain is legitimacy, but that gain goes out the window if they turn to violence.

I think Bush's reaction today is just right. Democracy is good, Hamas should not be dealt with until they demonstrate that they are not pushing to destroy Israel.

Give it six months, then we'll be able to see more about the future.


I think you're missing the point. As the good Senator Schumer said, should Israel (or anyone else for that matter) be expected to work with a group of murderers? Likewise Hamas has written off any kind of "peace process". Certainly, no peace is possible without the two sides working together.
"Outright war" is highly unlikely, a return to the endless cycle of violence and retribution is not so unlikely.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11009552/ :?

No, I get the point, I just disagree with it. I don't expect Israel or the US to work with Hamas until they make the first moves towards peace. Hamas does not deserve such deference at this point.

The funny thing is that Hamas is just as shocked as anyone else that they now control the Palestinian Authority. They don't have a plan for this. Seriously, they planned on being a vocal and strong opposition after this election, they weren't planning on LEADING. So now they have to regroup and plan from scratch for their newfound power position. They will find quickly that unless they want all-out war, they will have to bend somewhat to the realities of their region. They will either bend or break, it's their choice.

Things may digress into intifada again. But the difference now is that since Hamas IS the government, they can be held reponsible for their actions, by both Israel and by the Palestinian people.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 12:10 am 
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watch for iran to strengthen ties with hamas they all have 1 goal to wipe israel off the map.The middle ease is a time bomb waiting to explode.Just watch & see israel turn to a German led EU.iT will the worst thing they could do trusting Germany.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 12:12 am 
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davejeni wrote:
watch for iran to strengthen ties with hamas they all have 1 goal to wipe israel off the map.The middle ease is a time bomb waiting to explode.Just watch & see israel turn to a German led EU.iT will the worst thing they could do trusting Germany.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 12:27 am 
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Sandler wrote:
They've shown no desire for peaceful negotiations in the past few years. What makes you think that's their agenda now? This result makes me wonder if Palestinians are serious about peace in the first place.

Even without Hamas in power, I'm sure Israel is under no illusion about what this group is capable of. We've all seen some of the carnage.

I completely understand your concerns, but ever since Israel assassinated Sheik Yassin a couple of years ago, with all that has happened since then, including Arafat's death and the Gaza withdrawal, it does seem to me that Hamas has taken a more moderate stance. Moderate in the sense that they still killed Israelis, just a fair bit less than they previously did and mostly in retaliation to air strikes. The rhetoric around wiping Israel off the map seems to have changed towards one for a 2 state solution. The one guy who continues to advocate for this lives in Tehran.

This forces them onto the negotiating table. They haven't had to do it before, primarily out of distaste for Fatah's internal corruption and disregard for the Palestinian people.

If Hamas say they'll do something, be it positive or negative, you can bet your bottom dollar they'll do it. Fatah? Not so much.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 1:16 am 
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punkdavid wrote:
But the difference now is that since Hamas IS the government, they can be held reponsible for their actions, by both Israel and by the Palestinian people.


This sentence worries me (hopefully I'm reading it wrong). Why couldn't Hamas be held responsible for earlier actions?


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 1:26 am 
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Green Habit wrote:
punkdavid wrote:
But the difference now is that since Hamas IS the government, they can be held reponsible for their actions, by both Israel and by the Palestinian people.


This sentence worries me (hopefully I'm reading it wrong). Why couldn't Hamas be held responsible for earlier actions?


Right...that's kind of a red herring...what are they going to do?...vote them out of office?(egads!!)

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 1:28 am 
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Green Habit wrote:
punkdavid wrote:
But the difference now is that since Hamas IS the government, they can be held reponsible for their actions, by both Israel and by the Palestinian people.


This sentence worries me (hopefully I'm reading it wrong). Why couldn't Hamas be held responsible for earlier actions?

A) They couldn't be voted out of political power, because they didn't hold any.

B) If Hamas starts attacking Israelis in force, Israel can now say that they are being attacked by a hostile foreign government, not merely insurgent terrorist criminals. It would give them license to treat all Palestinian security forces as enemy soldiers. If you think that Israel has been harsh on the Palestinians in the past, imagine what they'll do when they don't feel constrained by the need to differentiate between terrorists and the authorities in Gaza and the West Bank.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 1:30 am 
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Man in Black wrote:
Right...that's kind of a red herring...what are they going to do?...vote them out of office?(egads!!)

You scoff, but once they have a taste of legitimacy, they may not want to go back to being outside of the system again.

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